GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 476

More Hostages Released

Four More

Four families got the good news that their loved ones are coming home as we see in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

Israel approves Hamas’ list of hostages to be released Saturday. The four hostages are female IDF observers Naama Levy, Liri Albag, Daniella Gilboa and Karina Ariev.

Apparently Israel was expecting to get three female soldiers this time:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Office initially said that the list Hamas published of the four names of hostages to be released on Saturday did not comply with the agreement in a statement on Friday.

"Israel is preparing to receive the hostages tomorrow. The list of prisoners will be provided this evening," a security source said Friday evening, according to Israeli media.

As part of the hostage deal, it was originally agreed that the four hostages set for release on Saturday are to be three soldiers and one civilian.

Will this be seen as breaking the deal? To be honest, this is what Hamas always does. They push the limits and see if they get away with it. Regardless, four hostages are coming home:

"The Hostages Families Forum welcomes the news about the expected release of Daniella Gilboa, Karina Ariev, Liri Albag, and Naama Levy after 477 days in Hamas captivity," the Hostages Families Forum said in a statement. "An entire nation has fought for them and anxiously awaits their longed-for return to their families' embrace.

The forum went on to state what we all are wanting:

"We have both a sacred duty and moral right to bring all our brothers and sisters home. We will not give up or stop at any stage until all hostages return home under the current agreement - down to the very last one - the living for rehabilitation and the deceased for proper burial in their homeland."

As part of the deal Hamas is also required to give an update on the remaining hostages:

Hamas is also supposed to pass on a list of the status of the remaining 26 hostages held in Gaza who are on the release list for the first phase.

For the first time, Israel will, therefore, receive official information about the fate of the Bibas family: Parents Shiri and Yarden and children, Ariel and Kfir.

Already the terrorists are changing the deal, but Israel intends on making them pay for it:

Israel has already prepared to put pressure on Hamas if it tries to "play games" with the lists.

Not all Israelis are onboard with the deal and showed their disapproval:

Protesters blocked the Ayalon highway in Tel Aviv on Friday evening. They were protesting against the current deal, saying that every hostage, dead and alive, should come home.

While I am happy that seven hostages are free, I have concerns about this deal. Getting back a third of those currently in captivity for almost 2,000 dangerous criminals is a steep price to pay. I hope that Netanyahu and company have a bigger plan in place.

Hamas Getting Stronger

Eliminating Hamas is only made harder when they are able to add to their numbers from Gazans as we’re told in an article from The Times Of Israel:

The Palestinian terror group Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since the start of its war with Israel, according to two congressional sources briefed on US intelligence, suggesting the Iran-backed fighters could remain a persistent threat to Israel.

The intelligence indicates a similar number of Hamas fighters have been killed during that period, the sources said. The latest official US estimates have not been previously reported.

If there’s good news here apart from the IDF taking out as many as are being recruited it’s the age of the newly enlisted fighters:

The sources briefed on the intelligence, which was included in a series of updates from US intelligence agencies in the final weeks of the Biden administration, said that while Hamas has successfully recruited new members, many are young and untrained and are being used for simple security purposes.

The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

One outgoing US leader describes the constant replacing of terrorists is troubling:

On January 14, then-president Joe Biden’s secretary of state Antony Blinken said the United States believed Hamas had recruited almost as many fighters as it had lost in the Palestinian enclave, cautioning that this was a “recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”

He did not provide further details about the assessment, but Israeli figures have put the total terrorist death toll in Gaza at around 20,000.

“Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and reemerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void,” Blinken said.

The lack of setting up a governing body in places where Hamas terrorists and leaders have left or have been killed is an issue and could be a reason why Israel may have to occupy the area of a time if only to control the rise of new recruits:

Asked for comment, a Hamas official said he was checking with the relevant parties in the group. Hamas armed wing spokesman Abu Obeida said in July that the terrorist organization had been able to recruit thousands of new fighters.

If we’ve learned anything from the ceasefire it’s that Hamas is using the time to rebuild itself not only with the people coming back, but making the people depend on them for help:

In the days since the ceasefire, Hamas has shown itself to be deeply entrenched in Gaza despite Israel’s vow to destroy the terror group. The territory’s Hamas-run administration has moved quickly to reimpose security measures and to begin restoring basic services to parts of the enclave, much of which has been reduced to wasteland in the fighting.

The US agrees that Hamas is using fake figures to make Israel look bad which does help with recruiting new terrorists:

US officials have issued similar warnings since the Hamas-led terror onslaught against Israel in October 2023, in which some 1,200 people were killed and more than 251 taken hostage. More than 46,000 people have been killed in the Israeli assault that followed, according to Hamas health authorities, whose unverified figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

Terrorism Spreading

Earlier last year, some US officials felt that the war in Israel is helping galvanize terrorists around the globe:

At a congressional hearing in March 2024, then-director of national intelligence Avril Haines said that the war in Gaza would have a “generational impact on terrorism” and that the crisis had already “galvanized violence by a range of actors around the world.”

As for Hamas, their numbers are still larger than anticipated:

Gathering exact data on Hamas is notoriously difficult because of a lack of verifiable intelligence from inside Gaza and because the terror group’s recruitment and training efforts are fluid. But official US figures show that prior to October 7, 2023, Hamas had anywhere between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters.

One Israeli official sees it as an issue, but notes the youth aspect plays a big part:

Asked on Wednesday about Blinken’s comments, Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon acknowledged Hamas’s recruitment efforts but played down the threat.

“We know that Hamas recruits youngsters,” Danon said. “But even if they recruit youngsters, they don’t have the weapons or the training facilities. So basically, yes, you can incite those youngsters against Israel, but they cannot become a terrorist, because you cannot equip them with weapons or rockets.”

Another problem is the IDF leaving areas which Hamas is taking back. Negotiations will only further that trend:

Following the ceasefire, Israeli troops have begun to move back from some of their positions inside Gaza. The second phase of the ceasefire deal could bring about a permanent end to the fighting. The terms of that phase still need to be negotiated.

This only makes my prediction of the deal collapsing because all the military work to weaken Hamas is being squandered:

In his resignation speech on Tuesday, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, Israel’s military chief, said Hamas had been severely damaged and that most of the group’s military commanders had been killed. But he said Hamas had not been eliminated and the Israel Defense Forces would continue to fight to further dismantle the terror organization.

Keeping Hamas from taking over in Gaza is getting harder by the day, but Israel and the US will fight that happening:

One of the most difficult issues involved in negotiating the next phases is postwar Gaza’s governance. Some Israeli officials say they won’t accept Hamas staying in power. Hamas so far has not given ground.

Newly inaugurated President Donald Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday that Hamas will never govern Gaza and if it reneges on the deal, Washington will support Israel “in doing what it has to do.”

I’m happy that 7 hostages are freed. However the long term prospects are not happy.