GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 417

Ceasefire Deal Reached

Netanyahu Speaks

Oftentimes we get a report on the speeches Prime Minister Netanyahu gives, but for this one I am taking a look at the full comments found on the Jewish Press:

“The duration of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon. We will enforce the agreement and respond forcefully to any violation. Together, we will continue until victory.

The PM admits that full victory is still to come and he gave the details of what that will look like starting with Hamas:

Citizens of Israel, I promised you victory—and we will achieve it. We will complete the elimination of Hamas, bring back all our abductees, ensure Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel, and safely return northern residents to their homes.

He then turned to northern Israel and how victory will look for them:

The war will not end until all its goals are achieved, including the safe return of northern residents. This will happen, just as it did in the south. To the residents of the north, I am proud of you and your resilience. I am fully committed to your security, rebuilding your communities, and securing your future.

Netanyahu then took time to thank all those who got them to this point in the war and then listed them one by one:

Thanks to the bravery of the IDF, Shin Bet, Mossad, and the Israel Police, we have achieved remarkable success on seven fronts in the “War of Resilience.” These achievements have amazed the world and demonstrated Israel’s strength across the Middle East:

1.Iran: We destroyed significant portions of its air defense, missile production capabilities, and key elements of its nuclear program. Preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons remains my top priority.

Note he mentioned Iran’s nuclear weapons. This could be the reason he wants to put Hezbollah on hold if even for a few days:

2.Gaza: We dismantled Hamas brigades, killed approximately 20,000 terrorists, eliminated senior leaders, and freed 154 hostages. We remain committed to bringing all abductees home and eradicating Hamas.

3.Judea and Samaria: We have neutralized hundreds of terrorists, destroyed terror infrastructure, and reached every stronghold of terror.

4.Yemen: We struck the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah with unprecedented force.

5.Iraq: We successfully thwarted numerous drone attacks and continue to address challenges there.

6.Syria: We systematically block Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian army from transferring weapons to Lebanon. Assad must understand—he is playing with fire.

Again, he takes gives the Syrian leader a short warning. He then says what they’ve done to Hezbollah:

7.Lebanon: Hezbollah attacked us on October 8, but it is no longer the same Hezbollah. We have set them back decades, eliminated Nasrallah and senior operatives, destroyed most of their rockets, and dismantled their terror infrastructure near our border. Strategic targets across Lebanon have been hit, and Beirut trembles.

While listing these, he also hinted at why he agreed to the terms. Much like Hamas, Hezbollah is a shell of what it was and can be put on the back burner so to speak.

The Rationale

Netanyahu then summarized his speech telling Israelis why he is taking the deal:

Citizens of Israel,

Three months ago, this seemed like science fiction, but we made it a reality. Every step of this campaign has been carefully considered.

The PM assured his nation that the fighting isn’t over:

Tonight, I will present the Cabinet with a ceasefire plan for Lebanon. Its duration depends on what happens there. In coordination with the U.S., we retain full military freedom of action. Any Hezbollah violation—whether rearming, building terror infrastructure, launching rockets, or digging tunnels—will be met with force.

He then told them Hezbollah will still have its day of judgment:

Some claim a ceasefire will prevent us from resuming fighting. I remind you, the same was said about Gaza, yet we returned to fight—and decisively.

Netanyahu then listed the rationale for his agreement:

Why a ceasefire now? Three main reasons:

1.Focus on the Iranian threat.

2.Replenishing and upgrading our forces with advanced weaponry to ensure the safety of our soldiers and strengthen our capabilities.

3.Isolating Hamas: Since the second day of the war, Hamas has relied on Hezbollah joining the fight. With Hezbollah out of the equation, Hamas is left isolated, allowing us to increase pressure on them and aid in the sacred mission of freeing our hostages.

Again, listen to that first bullet point. While these comments are nuanced, they speak volumes. There is definitely a strategy here that isn’t publicly stated. The PM then summarized the accomplishments of the war and assured Israelis that they have every intention to enforce the deal:

Citizens of Israel,

Over the past year, we have turned the tables. Attacked on seven fronts, we responded with strength and transformed the Middle East. These accomplishments are thanks to our brave soldiers, your steadfast resilience, and the firm and calculated management of the war.

I have often said: A good agreement is one that is enforced—and we will enforce this agreement.

With God’s help, we will establish security, restore vitality to the north, and continue together until victory!

The key and the wildcard here is Hezbollah. If we are to believe their previous comments, they are far from done with fighting. Back when Nasrallah was alive they said that they wouldn’t quit attacking until there was a ceasefire in Gaza. Here is the exact quote:

"The Lebanese front will not rest until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza."

It’s early in this agreement, but we have enough experience to be cautious.

Was Pressure Used?

We’re told in a report from CBN.com that the return of residents in the north won’t happen soon:

Some reports indicate Israelis on the border who fled their homes on October 8th, 2023, when Hezbollah began shelling, may not be able to return for weeks or up to two months.

And Hezbollah is far from going quietly into the good night:

Former Israel Defense Forces intelligence officer and founder of the Alma Research Center Sarit Zahavi went on Instagram to point out what she sees as the danger in the deal.

"But the gap lies with the question of whether Hezbollah will be able to recover or not. After what happened on October 7th, Israelis are not willing to enable Hezbollah to recover. This is not going to happen anymore. We are not going to enable that."

Zahavi added, "While I am speaking to you, there are alerts proving that Hezbollah still has the capabilities to launch rockets and missiles against Israel. We cannot rely on just promises. We need to make sure that Hezbollah is not capable of threatening us and our families."

Even now Hezbollah and the IDF are extremely active before the ceasefire starts:

In the days before the announced ceasefire, Hezbollah fired more than 500 rockets and missiles into Israel, damaging several buildings and wounding Israelis while sending millions of residents of northern and central Israel into bomb shelters.

At the same time, the IDF struck more Hezbollah command centers in Beirut and dozens of other Hezbollah sites throughout Lebanon.

One Israeli cabinet member predictably doesn’t like the deal:

However, Israeli Internal Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, posting on X, criticized the agreement, writing that it stops short of victory.

"An agreement with Lebanon is a big mistake," he wrote. "A historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah. I understand all the constraints and reasons, and it is still a grave mistake."

And about that US pressure:

Alex Traiman, CEO and Jerusalem bureau chief of JNS News, claims the U.S. pressured Israel to accept the ceasefire deal. Yet, the Biden administration has been applying intense pressure for ceasefires since the October 7th Hamas massacre.

Traiman contends Israel feared that the Biden administration would punish the Jewish state by abstaining on a U.N. Security Council resolution and continuing its arms embargo of critical military equipment.

Traiman adds this to his reasoning:

He told CBN News, "Nobody knows exactly why, when the Biden administration is so close to leaving office, why the pressure has finally gotten to Netanyahu. What is it that the Biden administration is threatening Israel with, aside from, potentially allowing a UN Security Council resolution against Israel to pass in the coming weeks? And we don't know what the UN security resolution could look like at this stage. But apparently, the threats are grave enough that Netanyahu is taking them very seriously."

All of what Traiman says could be true. But I suspect there is more to this than what we’re being told not only by the US but also Israel. Stay tuned, this is far from over.