GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 416

There Is A Deal

A Ceasefire Deal

We’re told in a report from the Jerusalem Post that Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to have agreed in principle to a ceasefire with Lebanon:

The cabinet is set to meet Tuesday to weigh a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah that could be cemented in the coming days, a senior official said on Monday.

We’ve heard this before, but it could be almost a done deal if the reports I read are correct. But this article does tell us that there are issues yet to be solved:

Officials said earlier that an agreement was getting closer though there were still some issues to resolve, while senior Lebanese officials voiced guarded optimism even as strikes continued.

In Beirut, Elias Bou Saab, Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker, said there were “no serious obstacles” left to start implementing a US-proposed ceasefire with Israel, “unless [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu changes his mind.”

The basics are given to us again saying that the one country Israel didn’t want to be a part was solved:

The proposal is for a 60-day truce, which would be the timeline for Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon, giving time for the Lebanese army to gradually deploy to southern Lebanon, effectively sowing shut any opportunity for Hezbollah forces to reestablish themselves.

Saab said one sticking point on who would monitor the ceasefire had been resolved in the last 24 hours by agreeing to set up a five-country committee, including France, chaired by the United States.

A senior defense source said on Thursday that, in addition to the 60-day truce, a ceasefire will exclude a security perimeter. They added that other likely ceasefire terms include an American letter of guarantees to Israel, American supervision of UNIFIL, and empowering the Lebanese army to truly gain back and maintain control of southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah could upend the agreement, though:

These would be in addition to Hezbollah’s acceptance of a withdrawal of its own forces to points north of the Litani River, with the US, France, and others committing to help guarantee that Hezbollah will be unable to resupply itself with rockets and other weapons from land, air, or sea.

That’s a pretty big sticking point. Another is if Israel can still take actions against Hezbollah:

The official specified that the American letter – which will likely not be made public – will delineate between different scenarios: where Israel can act against Hezbollah violations without checking in with any third party, and in what situations would it need to first complain to an international body before taking action.

The US Is Mum

In the US, officials aren’t willing to say much about the deal, but did say things are looking up:

The White House would not comment on Monday on reports of an emerging deal. National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told reporters that it “wouldn’t be wise for him to go into much detail at this particular point.”

However, Kirby did say the discussions were constructive, and the National Security Council believes “the trajectory of this is going in a positive direction.

Kirby did tell reporters that hard diplomatic work is helping:

“We are where we are today because of a lot of back and forth, a lot of discussions, a lot of work, principally by [US special envoy Amos Hochstein] of course, and we believe we’ve reached this point where we’re close,” Kirby said. But the deal is not closed, Kirby emphasized multiple times.

“We need to keep at the work to see it through so that we can actually get the ceasefire for which we’ve been working. And we believe we’ve reached this point where we’re close,” he said.

Still, the lack of their unbridled support is curious:

Kirby repeatedly tiptoed around specifics of the deal and concluded his briefing by explaining he didn’t want to do or say anything “that might torpedo our chances.”

“The most important thing here is that we try to get this ceasefire because it will mean, literally, that lives will be saved,” Kirby said. “And hopefully, over a period of time, that livelihoods will be restored.”

Lebanon sounds like the deal will get done:

Four Lebanese sources told Reuters that US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron were expected to announce a ceasefire within 36 hours – or by Wednesday morning – under the existing plans.

The French presidency said on Monday evening that the ceasefire discussions have made progress.

“We are continuing to work with… our American partners toward this direction… we hope all involved will seize this opportunity as soon as possible,” the statement said.

Hold Your Horses

While I am not opposed to a ceasefire as long as Hezbollah is eliminated, those who matter the most are not happy at all:

Northern regional council heads expressed outrage at the emerging deal, particularly as it would allow for the return of Lebanese civilians back to the border towns and that there was no way to really ensure that these homes don’t house weapons directed at Israel, several of them told KAN News.

We hear more statements that aren’t exactly telling us the deal is done:

Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said earlier in the day, “We haven’t finalized it yet, but we are moving forward.” Asked for comment, Netanyahu’s office said it had nothing to say about the report.

And then there is this from CNN:

CNN reported in the afternoon, citing a source, that Netanyahu reportedly approved a ceasefire with Lebanon “in principle,” during a meeting with Israeli officials on Sunday evening.

And there are more wiggle words to be heard:

“We are moving in the direction towards a deal, but there are still some issues to address,” Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer said.

Michael Herzog, the Israeli ambassador in Washington, told Army Radio an agreement was close and “it could happen within days... We just need to close the last corners,” according to a post on X by Army Radio senior anchorman Efi Triger.

The biggest hurdle is not the words, but the actions needed once a deal is in place:

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said the test for any agreement would be in the enforcement of two main points.

“The first is preventing Hezbollah from moving southward beyond the Litani [River], and the second, preventing Hezbollah from rebuilding its force and rearming in all of Lebanon,” Sa’ar said in broadcast remarks to the Knesset.

Some want to end the deal now:

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel must press on with the war until “absolute victory.” Addressing Netanyahu, he said, “It is not too late to stop this agreement.”

One minister means business if a deal is in place:

But Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter said Israel should reach an agreement in Lebanon.

“If we say ‘no’ to Hezbollah being south of the Litani, we mean it,” he told journalists.

This Hezbollah leader is vague on the deal and may know more than what he’s telling us:

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said last week that the group had reviewed and given feedback on the US ceasefire proposal, and any truce was now in Israel’s hands.

I don’t know about you, while there is a lot of hope and anticipation on this, I sense that it will be Hezbollah who will end it. But it may be a bait and switch ploy to allow Israel to attack Iran which would put their strongest proxy in a bind. We will see, though. As you pray for the peace of Jerusalem, pray that they have wisdom to do the right thing here.