GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 368

Going It Alone

Not So Fast

Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s visit to the US is delayed by Netanyahu as we read in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Defense Minister Yoav Gallant not to travel to the Pentagon for talks on Iran until such time as US President Joe Biden calls him, a source confirmed to The Jerusalem Post.

Gallant had been scheduled to fly to the United States on Tuesday night to meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The trip comes as Israel is weighing the scope and substance of its retaliatory strike against Iran.

Biden didn’t talk to the PM after they helped Israel fend off the latest Iranian attack and he didn’t call him yesterday on the anniversary of the October 7th attack by Hamas:

Biden did not speak to Netanyahu in the aftermath of that strike just before the Jewish New Year, even though the United States took to the skies along with four other armies – the United Kingdom, France, Israel, and Jordan – to defend Israel against Iran’s ballistic missiles.

When it came to reaching out to Israel to mark the anniversary of October 7, Biden called President Isaac Herzog, a move that underscored the absence of a Biden-Netanyahu call.

Tensions remain high between the world leaders and they disagree on how to hit Iran:

Biden as well as White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre have both said that such a call would be forthcoming, but it has not yet occurred. The absence of phone calls and visits is often a sign of stress in the relationship. Netanyahu was invited to the White House for the first time only last summer, even though he has been in office since the end of December 2022.

The US and Israel have been at odds over the tactics of how the IDF should battle Iran and its proxy groups, even though they broadly agree on the needed outcome.

The PM and Gallant have also been at odds:

The relationship between the prime minister and the defense minister deteriorated after Gallant publicly warned Netanyahu in March last year that the government’s judicial reforms were a threat to national security. The relationship remained strained and even worsened during the war. Last month, Netanyahu approved a move to replace Gallant with MK Gideon Sa’ar, but that step was not completed.

Some in Israeli politics think making things personal is wrong in a time of war:

National Unity chair MK Benny Gantz wrote on X that the cancellation “harmed national security at a critical time to our security, due to personal and political considerations. A prime minister for whom Israel’s security was the top priority, would have sent the defense minister and coordinated the messages, and enable him the use of ‘Kanaf Zion’ [Israel’s version of Air Force One] so he can be fully available and head home quickly.”

Some also think Netanyahu didn’t want Gallant to be seen as the reasonable one although they both agreed on how to fight the war. Regardless, there are probably other things playing out here.

No Mas

According to some, Hezbollah is crying uncle while also boasting of being able to attack Israel at the same time. We learn from another article from The Jerusalem Post the terrorist group seems to want a ceasefire as opposed to seeing all their leadership neutralized daily:

Hezbollah said it supported efforts to secure a ceasefire with Israel as the IDF continued to target its top leadership and the two armies sharply increased their bombardments.

“After the issue of a ceasefire takes shape, and once diplomacy can achieve it, all of the other details can be discussed and decisions can be taken,” Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said on Tuesday. “If the enemy [Israel] continues its war, then the battlefield will decide.”

Qassem mentioned in particular the efforts of Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to restore calm.

“We support the political activity being led by Berri under the title of a ceasefire,” the deputy leader said in his 30-minute televised address.

Is Hezbollah’s desire to see the fighting to stop evidence of a change of heart? No one knows:

It was not clear whether this signaled any change in stance, after a year in which the group has said it is fighting to support both Hamas and the Palestinian people in their war with Israel and would not stop without a ceasefire in Gaza.

What we do know is that Israel isn’t relenting until Hezbollah retreats:

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller clarified that Israel has not accepted a ceasefire. The word ceasefire was only meaningful, he explained, if it included an agreement for Hezbollah to pull away from Israel’s northern border and back to the Litani River, as set out under the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 that detailed the ceasefire terms ending the Second Lebanon War.

The terrorists can’t be trusted to recognize a ceasefire if their history is considered:

“Obviously, we don’t trust Hezbollah,” Miller said. “But you look at what Hezbollah said in 2006 when 1701 was adopted by the UN Security Council... that they would implement 1701 – and they blew through all of their commitments.

“So there is an obvious lack of faith in Hezbollah’s ability to do what it said in 2006 and do what it’s saying it would do now, which is agree to an actual ceasefire that would allow Israeli civilians to return home and allow Lebanese civilians to return home,” the State Department spokesperson said.

Perhaps the only reason Hezbollah is seeking a ceasefire due to the IDF deteriorating them:

Qassem’s statement about a ceasefire, Miller said, shows that Israel has been successful in weakening the group’s military power.

Still, they contend they still can attack Israel even as they beg for the fighting to stop:

Speaking from an undisclosed location, Qassem said the conflict with Israel was a war about who cries first, and Hezbollah would not be the first to cry. The group’s capabilities were intact despite “painful blows” from Israel.

“Dozens of cities are within range of the resistance’s missiles. We assure you that our capabilities are fine,” he said.

These aren’t the kind of stances that will change Israel’s mind. Saying they will surrender and mean it followed my meaningful actions will stop the devastation of southern Lebanon.

Does Israel Need US Help?

Some in the know think that Israel needs the help of the US to take our Iran’s nuclear sites, but that may not be true as we learn from a report from the Jerusalem News Syndicate:

While Iran’s nuclear facilities may be the ultimate target for Israel’s promised retaliatory strike, skeptics have doubted if Israel is capable of reaching them by itself, given they are built deep underground.

That skepticism may be dissipating, at least among U.S. defense officials, according to The New York Times.

“[F]or the past few days, Pentagon officials have been wondering quietly whether the Israelis are preparing to go it alone, after concluding that they may never again have a moment like this one,” the Times reported on Monday.

Some in the US military think Israel has more in the tank that people think:

Fueling speculation that this may be the case, an unnamed U.S. defense official told Sky News Arabic on Monday that Israel’s attack will be “greater than expected.”

The US has tried to keep Israel from taking out the nuclear site in Iran before but the IDF could have decided to create a way to do it all by themselves as a result. Here is what they may hit:

Iran has more than several dozen nuclear facilities covering the nuclear fuel cycle, from mining to power generation. The two most commonly mentioned in connection with Iran’s not-so-secret weapons program are the nuclear fuel enrichment sites of Natanz and Fordow.

Both are built deep inside mountains, leading some to conclude that even the U.S., using its largest “bunker buster,” the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), couldn’t penetrate them.

Impossible? Many in and outside of Israel didn’t think they could take down Hezbollah either:

Nevertheless, Israel has developed plans to destroy at least Natanz, and “cripple the giant centrifuge hall, where thousands of the tall, silver machines spin at supersonic speeds until the uranium approaches bomb-grade material,” the Times reported.

Many in leadership are hinting they can go it alone:

Israel has broadcast confidence about its expected Iran attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said hours after Iran’s ballistic missile strike on Oct. 1, “Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.”

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi promised the IDF would respond with “precise and surprising offensive capabilities.”

The US has told Israel to not attack Iran’s nuclear sites or oil fields, but the IDF may still act:

However, a U.S. State Department official told CNN on Friday that despite U.S. opposition, Israel has given “no guarantees” regarding its planned attack.

Israelis support not letting the US meddle in their decisions:

Aiding Netanyahu in taking action independent of, or even in opposition to, the U.S. is a hardened Israeli public.

According to a JNS survey conducted by Direct Polls late last month, 83% of respondents said Israel made the right decision in not consulting the U.S. before assassinating Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Only 9% said it was the wrong decision. JNS also asked the public whether Israel should seize the momentum it has gained through its recent strikes on Hezbollah to attack Iran before the U.S. elections. Sixty-two percent of the public answered affirmatively.