GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 259

The Pieces Are In Place

Getting Their Stories Straight

In a story from The Times Of Israel we read that an IDF spokesperson saying that Hamas can’t be destroyed:

IDF Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari on Wednesday cast Israel’s war aim of eradicating the Hamas terror group as unattainable, appearing to underscore tensions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and top defense officials over his handling of the war in Gaza.

Hagari explained himself this way:

“This business of destroying Hamas, making Hamas disappear — it’s simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public,” Hagari told Channel 13 news in an interview.

“Hamas is an idea, Hamas is a party. It’s rooted in the hearts of the people — anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong,” he continued.

Hagari also warned that “if the government doesn’t find an alternative — [Hamas] will remain” in the Gaza Strip.

The PMO responded this way:

In response, Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that the security cabinet “has defined as one of the war goals the destruction of Hamas’s military and governance capabilities.”

“The Israel Defense Forces is of course committed to this,” the statement added.

The IDF maintains that Hagari’s comments were taken out of context:

The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit subsequently issued a statement saying the military was committed to the government’s stated war goals, including destroying Hamas’s governing and military abilities, adding that Hagari had talked in the interview about “eradicating Hamas as an ideology and an idea.”

“Any claim otherwise is taking the remarks out of context,” the IDF added.

The issue of governmental control in Gaza is a contentious one and even led to Benny Gantz and his National Unity party to leave the war cabinet. The issue is also splitting the military leadership as well as the support Netanyahu has from his right:

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has urged Netanyahu to advance plans for postwar governance of Gaza, warning in May that a failure to find a replacement for Hamas will undermine Israel’s military achievements as the terror group would be able to regroup and reassert control of the enclave. Additionally, Gallant called on Netanyahu to rule out the idea of Israeli military and civil rule in Gaza after the end of the war triggered by Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, as some far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition advocate.

Television reports have said IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar also recently feuded with Netanyahu over strategic planning, while National Unity leader Benny Gantz resigned last week from the emergency war government after the premier refused to present a postwar plan by the deadline he set.

Netanyahu is having to walk a fine line on strategy, a line that seems to be moving every day.

Rafah Could Fall Within Weeks

Hamas has had to shift its strategies to survive in Rafah as we read in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

The heated rhetoric on both sides of the border with Lebanon does not yet foreshadow the beginning of a broad campaign, but instead Israel's approach to the decisive moment.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah reads the situation in Israel carefully and understands that with the imminent end of the battle in Rafah, Israel will be required to make a decision on how to change the reality in the north.

The Post writer noted that defeat in Rafah could end quickly even though the fighting is different:

A visit to Rafah this week illustrated to me that the defeat of the Hamas brigade in the city is only a few weeks away.

Unlike in other places in the Gaza Strip, the IDF encountered stubborn and organized resistance from Hamas in Rafah.

These are not just individuals and squads but military systems that conduct an orderly, delaying battle against the IDF. The end will be decisive, but it will last a few more weeks.

Hamas has changed its tactics because of the tunnel system in Rafah:

Before entering Rafah I expressed doubt about the necessity of conquering the city, but after seeing what was revealed, that doubt has been removed.

Rafah is a very significant component of Hamas's force. It has a more extensive and developed tunnel system than we have seen anywhere else in Gaza.

It differs from the tunnels uncovered in other parts of the Strip in that they are all connected: smuggling tunnels to Egypt, combat tunnels, tunnels for senior officials to hide—everything is connected.

Hamas can get to the surface quickly to fight:

Along the Philadelphia axis, the border between Gaza and Egypt, a dug tunnel shaft was discovered every ten meters. These are not fanciful words but factual descriptions.

The entire border is studded with smuggling tunnels that are connected to rocket launch pits, command tunnels inside the city and attack tunnels towards Israel. Most of the tunnels have several levels, and they go down to a depth of 30 meters.

This allows Hamas to conduct a defensive battle that is mostly underground: they come out of shafts, attack the IDF, go back in and boobytrap the shafts, and then fall back to a line of shafts further back.

But this actually helps the IDF, too. But so did the swift evacuation of civilians:

Conversely, this allows the IDF to destroy more tunnels, including terrorists, through each exposed shaft.

The IDF's progress in the city is faster than expected. The absolute majority of the 1.4 million people who were here have left, which makes fighting possible while knowing that those who remain are terrorists.

These Hamas defectors will need to be rooted out and dealt with, though:

Hamas members also left, and probably also hostages, to the humanitarian area in the Mawasi area on the seashore. It is estimated that there are about 5,000 defectors from among the ranks of Hamas all over the Strip. The IDF will soon be required to deal with this area as well.

Two down, two to go:

Two of the Hamas battalions in the city are already close to surrender. There are two more that need to be defeated, and in the meantime, the forces of the 162nd Division are destroying the exposed tunnels and production sites.

The noose is tightening and Hamas as well as Hezbollah know it:

From the moment Israel completed the encirclement of the Gaza Strip from all sides and dismantled Hamas' weapons production capabilities, the organization's ability to replenish its ammunition stock was cut off.

Looking To Other Fronts

The analysis turned to other fronts as well, including Iran. Israel would prefer that any conflict with Hezbollah will be limited as they look for an easier solution apart from a diplomatic one:

Many senior officials in the IDF believe that the settlement that will come after a war that erodes Hezbollah's capabilities will be better than the settlement reached today. Still, they do not know how to say whether the gain from such a settlement will justify the painful price that Israeli society will pay in such a war.

Everyone agrees that the arrangement, whether now or after a war, will soon be broken and the countdown to another war will begin.

That is why the IDF is looking for a middle way: a limited military move, which will focus on Hezbollah's military capabilities, and will try to leave the campaign as an army against an army, which will leave the civilian rear of Israel and Lebanon out of the campaign.

And about Iran:

Another question that worries Israel is whether Iran can be left out of the campaign in Lebanon after it crossed the border and attacked Israel from its territory in April.

The working assumption is that it is not possible and that any campaign in the north will inevitably also lead to an exchange of blows with Iran, which would distract a significant part of the Air Force's power for long-range attacks.

The analyst seems to feel that it is Netanyahu that needs to be stopped, an opinion I don’t share. In all of this I see how the Psalm 83 war will play out next with Iran and its proxies coming after Israel in a joint attack. When the dust settles, Iran’s nuclear capacity will be hit, the Damascus weapon pipeline will be destroyed and Hezbollah will be defeated along with all the other Iranian proxies. Israel will then be able to tear down the walls around them and then the remnants of terrorism will be rooted out in Lebanon, Jordan, Gaza, the Westbank, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. You may think I am crazy, but it’s all prophesied in the Bible and it sets up the War of Gog and Magog perfectly.