GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 258

Power Play Looming

US Says Only 50 Are Alive

In a report found on The Times Of Israel the United States believes only 50 hostages are still alive:

United States officials estimate that as few as 50 hostages in Gaza are still alive, according to a report Thursday, confirming the worst fears of family members who say time is running out for their loved ones after nearly nine months in captivity.

They then totaled the number of those not alive:

The assessment, based on a combination of Israeli and American intelligence, put the number of deceased hostages at 66, a far higher number than Israel has publicly confirmed, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The military for Israel has lower totals for deceased hostages:

The Israel Defense Forces have confirmed the deaths of 41 hostages still in captivity, based on intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza.

A deal to release the hostages doesn’t look like it’s going to happen, though:

Talks for a deal to free the hostages, including the remains of those killed in captivity or during the October 7 Hamas onslaught on southern Israel, have failed to notch progress in recent weeks, with the terror group insisting on a permanent halt to fighting in Gaza, a condition rejected by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The PM asserts that the war will not end without those hostages still alive being rescued:

“We won’t leave the Gaza Strip until all the hostages return, and we won’t leave until we destroy Hamas’s military and administrative capabilities,” Netanyahu told family members of hostages confirmed killed during a meeting Thursday, according to his office. “We don’t have an option of putting our hands up. We don’t have an option to forego victory.”

It is widely agreed that every day they are held captive makes things worse:

Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, the head of the medical team for the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Hagai Levine said there is cause to be “extremely worried” for the fates of those still hostage.

“It seems like every week more hostages are dying or getting in danger or very sick,” he said.

The figures are estimates with neither the PMO nor Hamas confirming them.

It’s Going To Be Harder

The report continues by telling us the downside of the rescue of the 4 hostages:

Gershon Baskin, a hostage negotiator who facilitated the 2011 deal that released IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, told The Wall Street Journal that the rescue mission this month may have negatively affected the remaining hostages.

“They probably tightened up security. They’re looking for collaborators and any leakage of information. They may have moved hostages from above ground to underground,” he said. “I would think that the lives of the hostages were not better off after last Saturday.”

Israelis are growing impatient over the hostage deals not working with many wanting Netanyahu out:

Public pressure on the government to seal a deal to free the remaining hostages has been building since US President Joe Biden publicly presented an Israel-backed proposal last month.

On Thursday, family members of hostages held in Gaza blocked the Ayalon Highway in Tel Aviv, part of an organized “Week of Destruction” aimed at pressuring the government to call early elections and agree to a hostage deal with Hamas.

According to the Walla news site, among those blocking traffic on the key artery were Yifat Calderon, whose cousin Ofer Calderon is held hostage, and Shay Moses, nephew of hostage Gadi Moses.

To be fair, there is also increasing pressure on Hamas, who abducted the hostages in the first place to agree to the deal on the table now:

At the same time, the international community has sought to ramp up pressure on Hamas to agree to a deal freeing the hostages.

Both sides are not willing to shift their positions, though:

Despite the pressure, neither Netanyahu nor Hamas appear willing to budge, with negotiations remaining stalled. Hamas is reportedly seeking to change the terms of the deal currently on the table by pushing forward a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza into the very initial stages of a phased implementation, as well as insisting that it be a clear end to the war.

Israel refuses to commit to a permanent ceasefire as part of a hostage exchange deal, saying it cannot allow Hamas to continue ruling Gaza and developing its military capabilities in light of October 7.

It’s really simple: Hamas wants to survive and Israel wants to eliminate them. I don’t see any room for compromising in those stances.

A Power Play

All modern countries rely heavily on electricity and Israel is no different. According to an article from The Jerusalem Post the man in charge of providing that power doesn’t have high hopes for surviving an attack on their electrical systems:

CEO of Noga - Israel Independent System Operator Ltd., Shaul Goldstein, said there is no guarantee that there will be electricity in Israel in the event of a future war with Hezbollah on Thursday at the Institute for National Security Studies conference in Sderot.

“After 72 hours without electricity in Israel, living here will be impossible. We are not in a good state and unprepared for a real war," Goldstein said. He added that Hezbollah could easily take down Israel's power grid.

He added that knowing how to take down the grid is easy for Hezbollah:

“If Nasrallah wants to take down Israel's power grid, he only needs to make a phone call to the person in charge of Beirut's power system, which looks exactly like Israel's. He doesn't even need a drone; he can call a second-year electrical engineering student and ask where the most critical points in Israel are – everything is on the internet. I won't say it here, but anyone who goes on the internet can find it,” Goldstein said.

Goldstein says that Israel is not in good shape if that grid is attacked now:

“You check all our infrastructures – optical fibers and ports- and I won't get into sensitive issues, but we are not in a good state,” Goldstein warned. “We are not ready for a real war. We live in a fantasy world, in my opinion.”

He says the best thing that Israel can do is end the current war:

He then added that Israel has invested a lot in protection in a joint effort with the electric company.

Goldstein concluded his statements, “If the war is postponed by a year, five, ten – our situation will be better."

Not everyone agrees with Goldstein:

Bituach Leumi’s CEO, Meir Spiegler, called Shaul Goldstein’s statements regarding the “fragility” of the power grid “irresponsible” and “disconnected from reality.” He added that it “creates panic among the public” and that “It would be better if he focused on managing Noga, which has regressed since he took office.”

The Israeli government also doesn’t share Goldstein’s pessimism as seen in this response form The Energy Ministry:

"Since the beginning of the war, the ministry has been tirelessly working to ensure the energy supply for all citizens of the country, preparing meticulously for extreme scenarios and possible supply disruptions. These efforts are being carried out in close cooperation with security agencies to manage electricity demand, energy redundancy, and fuel reserves,” the ministry’s statement read.

"There are several scenarios, including the 'blackout' scenario in which over 60% of households may be left without electricity for up to 72 hours, which is an extreme scenario with low probability. However, the ministry continuously works to reduce the likelihood of this scenario and to prepare for a swift recovery from a blackout, should it occur," the statement continued.

The ministry encouraged Israelis to simply prepare for such situations:

The Energy Ministry called upon Israeli citizens to prepare for any situation in accordance with Home Front Command directives, including carrying batteries, water, and portable chargers.

Another minister weighed in as well:

Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen commented, “The State of Israel will not be left alone. We are preparing for every scenario, holding discussions and assessing the situation, and spending billions of shekels to ensure a regular supply of energy to all Israeli citizens.”

He continued, “In recent months, we have increased our inventory and purchased a lot of equipment in order to have backups. The State of Israel has the ability to generate electricity from a large variety of sources - we have gas rigs, we have huge reserves of coal, and we also generate electricity from renewable energy. Many actions, which cannot be specified, have been taken to ensure a regular energy supply. The chance of a power outage for many days is very low."

Cohen then turned the argument around when he let Hezbollah know what will happen to them:

He then added, "It is important for me to make it clear to our enemies: If there is a power outage lasting for hours [in Israel], in Lebanon, there will be a power outage for months."