GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War Day 622

Making The Right Call

They Were Close

With US President Trump making strong statements about hitting Iran, those who think there is no imminent nuclear threat are coming out of the woodworks. We hear about the disparate views in an article from The Jerusalem Post:

CENTCOM Commander Gen. Erik Kurilla warned on June 10 that Iran was "mere steps" from reaching weapons-grade uranium as defined by the IAEA in a post that was reposted by the official White House X account "Rapid Response 47" on Tuesday.

The X post provides these details:

Gen. Erik Kurilla, @CENTCOM Commander (June 10, 2025): "It is estimated that current stockpiles and the available centrifuges ... are sufficient to produce its first 25 kg of weapons-grade material in roughly one week and enough for up to ten nuclear weapons in three weeks."

The post went on to tell us more details:

The IAEA uses 90% enrichment as the benchmark for weapons-grade uranium, and it considers 25 kg of 90% enriched uranium enough to construct a simple nuclear weapon. The IAEA estimates current Iranian stockpiles to include over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium - almost double of what it was just six months ago. This is mere steps from reaching the 90% threshold for weaponization. Should the Regime decide to sprint to a nuclear weapon, it is estimated that current stockpiles and the available centrifuges across several enrichment plants are sufficient to produce its first 25 kg of weapons-grade material in roughly one week and enough for up to ten nuclear weapons in three weeks.

Still, that timeline apparently leaves out some critical details. At lease according to the article:

Notably, "sprinting" to produce a weapon includes some steps that Iran hadn't yet achieved. Some of these steps include detonating a nuclear explosion or being able to place a nuclear warhead on ballistic missiles. Different estimates say that with these steps in mind, Iran was closer to being seven months to one year away from making a weapon.

As I said earlier, some also don’t see Iran being even remotely close:

The official X account reposted this message after CNN reported that the US intelligence claimed Iran was actually three years away.

The CNN report published Tuesday followed four days of Israeli strikes across Iran. The report indicated that intelligence officials disagreed on the speed at which Iran could actually enrich uranium.

Of course they don’t tell us who those officials are, which could make their opinions worth less. Israel, however, maintains that Iranian scientists were already working on the warhead ballistics and the reports of earthquakes in the area could very well be from the detonating explosions. Netanyahu knew they were very close:

It is unclear where the disagreement comes from. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that Israeli intelligence shared with the US was "absolutely clear that they were working, in a secret plan to weaponize the uranium. They were marching very quickly."

There Is A Plan

Now that Israel is attacking Iran and Trump is getting closer and closer to actually saying that the US is fully in for stopping Iran’s nuclear program, Kurilla, in another report from The Jerusalem Post gave the Commander in Chief a plan to do so:

Commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM) Gen. Michael Kurilla met with US President Donald Trump and presented him with military options regarding Iran, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday.

If true then Kurilla should know the lay of the land so to speak:

Kurilla himself supports joining Israeli strikes and is highly knowledgeable about both American operational plans and Israeli capabilities, owing to his role as CENTCOM commander, which he has held since 2022.

And it also makes sense the Israel wants Kurilla to help lead the way:

It is no coincidence that, according to reports, Israel wanted to carry out the strike before Kurilla leaves his position.

If Trump orders an attack on Iran, Kurilla would be the one to lead the operation.

President Trump trusts Kurilla as well:

A source familiar with the details of the meeting told the Post that Trump is attentive to what Kurilla has to say and also respects him.

Still, Trump would prefer Iran surrender which sounds good politically, but isn’t really realistic:

"Trump would be pleased if the Iranians agreed to a deal he describes as ‘surrender,’” Israeli and US sources told the Post. “Since that is not on the horizon, the working assumption is that he will order a strike.

For Trump, who campaigned on stopping wars and not starting them this is a difficult call. That being said, the critics who say that he is tearing apart his MAGA coalition miss one major point. Trump isn’t running again so he has no reason to hold it together. His opponents know this and are intent on making it seem as if he will lose influence for the 2026 midterm elections. That being said, Trump has the most pro-Israel people in his inner circle of any previous president and that will get him over the edge of this. Haters are still going to hate even if it means ignoring the Khamenei rhetoric for the last decade or so. Iran can’t get their hands on nuclear weapons. Netanyahu knows this. So does Trump. Hopefully those two will make the right calls to keep the rest of the world safe. I pray that as well.