GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War Day 608

False Hope

Optimistic?

We read in a report on the ceasefire negotiation from The Times Of Israel that the mediators are hopeful Hamas will soften their demands:

Mediators are optimistic that Hamas will soon submit an updated hostage deal proposal that will be closer to what US special envoy Steve Witkoff presented last week, three sources familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel on Wednesday.

Hamas submitted an earlier response to Witkoff’s proposal on Saturday, which the US envoy blasted as unacceptable.

Since then, Egyptian and Qatari mediators — along with Witkoff’s representative in Doha, Palestinian-American businessman and political activist Bishara Bahbah — have been working with Hamas officials to soften or remove some of the changes it made to the US proposal, an Arab official and a second source familiar with the matter said.

Witkoff thinks a deal could happen soon:

A third source said Witkoff is optimistic about the chances for a breakthrough before the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday, which is slated to begin on Friday. That optimism was expressed during a meeting he held with a group of families in the White House on Tuesday.

His comments came during a visit from Israeli hostages and families:

Joining Witkoff from the Trump administration in that meeting were Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles.

The Israeli delegation included former hostage Tal Shoham, relatives of hostage Guy Gilboa Dalal, the parents of hostage Evyatar David and the parents of slain hostage Omer Neutra.

The Hostage Family forum commented on the meeting:

“Wiles, Leavitt and Witkoff expressed deep solidarity with the families and reaffirmed the Trump administration’s full commitment to securing the release of all 58 hostages. They emphasized that the administration will continue working relentlessly until every hostage is brought home,” a statement from the Hostage Family Forum said.

Trump’s Press Secretary also issued a statement:

“We are fully committed to securing the release of all the hostages and believe their return is essential, not only on humanitarian and moral grounds but also as a critical step toward regional stability,” said a statement from Leavitt. “The [March] meeting between the president and the captivity survivors had a profound impact on him and reinforced his determination to bring every hostage home.”

Not Close

Any optimism should be tempered because there are a lot of serious differences yet to be decided:

Even if Hamas submits a softened proposal as mediators anticipate, the sides will still need to hold a round of proximity talks aimed at ironing out final details, including the exact parameters of Israel’s partial withdrawal from Gaza during the 60-day temporary truce currently under discussion.

And the big elephant in the room is if Hamas survives:

The main issue of contention in the talks remains whether the temporary truce under discussion leaves enough of a window for Israel to resume fighting after it expires or if the proposal’s assurances from the Trump administration are enough to convince Hamas that the ceasefire will hold permanently.

Hamas’s Saturday response to Witkoff made a series of amendments to the US envoy’s proposal, including one that that would make it more difficult for Israel to resume fighting if talks on a permanent ceasefire are not completed by the end of 60-day truce outlined by the US, the Arab official and the second source said.

Hamas also implied that the major obstacle is Netanyahu who continues to say that any ceasefire deal is temporary and that once hostages are returned Israel will continue to fight to annihilate Hamas completely:

This change was aimed at preventing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from abandoning talks on a permanent ceasefire after the 10 hostages are released or refusing to engage in the talks altogether, as he did during the previous ceasefire, which ended in March when Israel resumed intensive fighting in Gaza.

The other constant request from Hamas is that humanitarian aid gets into Gaza, but what they really want is to still control it when it’s sent. But Israel and the US are already sending aid in but not through Hamas effectively taking away more control from the terrorists who used it to raise money for themselves. So do I think these negotiations will work? I am all for getting more hostages back, but I pray that Israel rescues them rather than capitulate once again to Hamas and allow them to regroup and reconstitute themselves while getting thousands of prisoners back to attack Israel again. As for me, I pray that Netanyahu and Israel hold the line and keep Hamas on the run while they take and hold more territory. At some point, those who are holding the hostages will realize they are fighting for a lost cause and surrender. Or God can supernaturally intervene and release them His way. Regardless, a ceasefire deal that massively favors Hamas is not good not matter how optimistic people are.