GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War Day 603

Deals Falling Apart

Ceasefire Deal “Close”

US President Donald Trump says that a ceasefire deal with Israel and Hamas is near as we see in a report from The Times Of Israel:

US President Donald Trump says “we’re very close” to reaching a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas.

“We’ll let you know about it during the day or maybe tomorrow, and we have a chance of that,” Trump tells reporters in the Oval Office.

We’ve been down this road before and Trump could be trying to give hope to a deal that Hamas is very wary about and is still looking at with disdain:

However, Hamas says it is still reviewing a proposal from the US, which it received yesterday.

The main sticking point is one I’ve told you before will kill the deal:

The proposal also stipulates that the sides still need to agree on the parameters of the IDF’s partial withdrawal from Gaza during the temporary truce.

The other dealbreaker is how the war ends and it will always be one:

Sources familiar with the negotiations told The Times of Israel that Hamas is disappointed with the proposal, as it still gives Israel the option to resume fighting at the end of the temporary truce, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to do.

Hamas needs time and that is why all the hints at accepting the deal is:

Not wanting to be pegged as the party to blame for the impasse, Hamas is leaning toward accepting the proposal, while submitting a series of reservations, the two sources said, in what will likely drag the talks out for at least several more days.

While reports say that Israel is in agreement with the offer on the table, it hasn’t even been brought up for a vote:

While Netanyahu told hostage families yesterday that he is principally supportive of the deal, he has yet to bring it before the cabinet to be approved, and several far-right members of his coalition have already come out against the proposal.

The natives are restless concerning the hostage families who feel that Netanyahu is stringing them along:

Earlier this week, Netanyahu infuriated hostage families by declaring that he hoped to make an announcement regarding the hostages “today or tomorrow” only to walk it back, explaining that he meant to explain that Israel is constantly working to secure the release of the hostages.

One Israeli, Amir Tsarfati doesn’t see Trump’s comments as helpful as seen in a post from his Telegram channel:

The usual “we are very close to have a deal”. The Middle East isn’t a business. It’s a jungle full of blood thirsty Jihadists!

I tend to agree. Either Trump doesn’t know about the Muslim mindset and how they make deals or he somehow thinks his dealmaking strategies transcend them. Or he’s playing them because he knows things they don’t. In any event, I detail that mindset in this podcast where I detail the terms Hudna, Tahadia and Hudaybiyyah. In short, even if a deal is agreed to, it will be broken.

Take The Nuclear Deal

A major Middle Eastern country is telling Iran to make a nuclear deals with the US or else as we’re told in another report from The Times Of Israel:

Saudi Arabia’s defense minister delivered a blunt message to Iranian officials in Tehran last month: Take US President Donald Trump’s offer to negotiate a nuclear agreement seriously, because it presents a way to avoid the risk of war with Israel.

The Saudi’s logic is simple:

Alarmed at the prospect of further instability in the region, Saudi Arabia’s 89-year-old King Salman bin Abdulaziz dispatched his son Prince Khalid bin Salman with the warning destined for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to two Gulf sources close to government circles and two Iranian officials.

Present at the closed-door meeting in Tehran, which took place on April 17 in the presidential compound, were Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, armed forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the sources said.

If Iran is only using the talks to stall as they are known for, Prince Khalid told them that won’t work with Trump and he should know. The details on the visit in Iran were not known until now:

Prince Khalid, who was Saudi ambassador to Washington during Trump’s first term, warned Iranian officials that the US leader has little patience for drawn-out negotiations, according to the four sources.

In Tehran, Prince Khalid told the group of senior Iranian officials that Trump’s team would want to reach a deal quickly, and the window for diplomacy would close fast, according to the four sources.

The Saudi minister said it would be better to reach a deal with the US than face the possibility of an Israeli attack if the talks broke down, according to the two Gulf sources.

The Saudis want to avoid an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if only to keep the area more stable:

He argued that the region, riven by the war sparked by the Hamas terror group’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, could not withstand a further escalation in tensions, according to the two Gulf sources and one senior foreign diplomat familiar with the discussions.

On Thursday, it was reported that during Trump’s trip to the Gulf earlier this month, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates told the American leader they oppose a military strike on Iran’s nuclear program.

The impact of the advice isn’t known, but while Iran says they want a deal, the refuse to get rid of their enrichment program which really means they don’t want a deal and are only stalling. I’m not surprised. While I would prefer that Iran be reasonable, their nuclear ambitions to have nukes and their hatred of Israel as a nation and Jews in general will keep them dangerous. And it looks like Israel has no choice but to stop them.