There Will Be Talks

We hear in a report from The Jerusalem Post that Iran will indeed engage in talks with the US after all:

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reportedly told by two of his senior officials to enter nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration, saying that not doing so could risk war with Washington and could lead to the fall of the regime, The New York Times reported Friday, citing the senior officials.

With that stark advice, Khamenei caved and will allow meetings to occur in Oman tomorrow:

Khamenei eventually heeded the officials' warnings and granted permission for talks with Washington, according to the report, which would first be indirect negotiations through an intermediary and then evolve into direct talks between the two countries. The NYT report comes a day before the two countries will meet in Oman for the indirect talks.

These Iranian leaders fully understood what would happen if no deal is reached including if Israel gets involved militarily:

Officials told the supreme leader that, in the case of negotiations falling through, the US military would strike Natanz and Fordow, which are two nuclear sites of the Islamic Republic. US President Donald Trump also said this week that "Iran would be in great danger" if talks failed between the two countries. The NYT also cited the officials as saying that a war with Israel would also be detrimental to the regime.

Iran rebuffed Trump’s initial letter, but now appear to be more open to talks:

Talks between Khamenei and the heads of the country's judiciary and parliament, which reportedly lasted hours, were held in March in response to Trump's letter seeking nuclear negotiations, to which the Islamic Republic gave an official response confirming their participation in negotiations, the officials told the NYT.

Economic Crisis Plays A Part

With sanctions and with the Trump administration tightening the proverbial noose around their neck in other ways, Iran sees that their already desperate economy will only get worse if they are attacked:

Iranian officials added that the country's economic crisis, which would be further damaged in a potential war with Israel and the US, would also contribute to the toppling of the Islamic Republic, the report noted. Last month, the Iranian parliament impeached Economy Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati, with the parliament's speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, saying the decision was driven by widespread dissatisfaction with the handling of the economy that was suffering from international sanctions.

Trump said the talks would be direct, but they seem to be allowing a mediator, at least at the beginning:

The Saturday talks in Oman, which will also act as a mediator, will see the Islamic Republic represented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the United States represented by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

Unfortunately, this will play right into the hands of Iran, who likes to drag things out and cause the communication chain to get muddled:

As the talks will be indirect, the report stated that officials from the two sides will sit in separate rooms while Omani officials will deliver messages from the two sides to one another.

The hope is that direct talks will be the goal sooner than later. However the stalling game is already being seen in a report about an interim agreement found in The Times Of Israel:

Iran is weighing up proposing an interim nuclear agreement to the US ahead of planned talks between the two countries in Oman this Saturday, the Axios news site reports.

Iran needs more time to avoid a military confrontation, time they will use to get nuclear weapons:

Tehran is concerned that US President Donald Trump’s reported two-month deadline for reaching a deal is too limited, and is seeking more time to avoid a military escalation by the US or Israel, says Axios, citing a European diplomat and a source familiar with the matter.

They want the pressure to be eased while they say they will reduce their uranium pursuits and allow more inspections of the program:

An interim agreement could reportedly involve Iran partly reducing its uranium enrichment activity and allowing the UN increased access to its nuclear facilities, as a confidence-building step to a more comprehensive agreement. The report says that in response, Iran would likely demand that Trump ease his “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Tehran.

But what if they already have enough enriched uranium now? Halting the production wouldn’t hurt them at all. And allowing more inspections doesn’t take into account that they are already hiding things from the UN inspectors. In short, they are back at their old game of time-wasting. In any event the indirect talks is yet another sign of Iran’s games. But they need to know that Netanyahu is also aware of it and he stated if he sees Iran isn’t serious, he will act even if he’s alone. Trump though is still warning Iran:

“If the talks aren’t successful,” Trump warned, “it’ll be a very bad day for Iran.”