Hostage Deal Offer

We learn in a report from The Times Of Israel that Hamas may be open to a short ceasefire:

The Kan public broadcaster reports that the mediators see a willingness among some senior members of Hamas to release a small number of hostages to secure a ceasefire during the Ramadan-ending holiday of Eid al-Fitr.

The one thing that never seems to be reported is what Hamas wants in return for the hostages but they appear to be willing to release a hostage the US wants back in the deal:

The network acknowledges that it’s still unclear what Hamas will ask in exchange for those it releases, though it does say that the freed hostages would include American-Israeli Edan Alexander.

The timing around a Muslim holiday may not be the main reason Hamas wants a deal:

Another Kan reporter says the deal has less to do with Eid al-Fitr and more to do with the protests that have broken out against Hamas throughout Gaza over the past several days.

According to the report the terrorists want to reign in the protests but can’t while Israel is attacking them:

Hamas wants to crack down on those participating in the protests and cannot do so while Israel’s operations are ongoing as the IDF is targeting terror operatives that it spots out in the open, Kan says.

A ceasefire, even of several days, would allow for Hamas to reign in on the protests, which have been a major source for distress within the terror group, the network claims.

Again, if Israel can get a better deal for more hostages than what Hamas always offers it could be worth a little ceasefire. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu already said that any negotiation would be while fighting is ongoing so we’ll see how this goes. I’d say that the PM will only agree to a swap of hostages for prisoners while the attacks continue. And I don’t see why Israel would get in the way of protests that certainly favor their goals.

Taking Over

We see in an article from The Media Line that Israel will have to control the Gaza Strip for a time if their goal of defeating and removing Hamas is still wanted:

The Israeli government faces mounting pressure from within and abroad as it considers deeper involvement in Gaza following renewed fighting and hostage negotiations

With Israel back attacking Hamas there could be a shift in how they are approaching this war:

With American backing and ironclad support from his cabinet, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be preparing for a major shift in policy toward the terrorist group that controls the territory bordering southern Israel. Before entering office, US President Donald Trump promised to end the war and lift constraints imposed by the previous administration led by President Joe Biden. The Israeli government now stands at a crossroads, facing major uncertainties. Will Israel be pressured into accepting a settlement that ends the war in Gaza, potentially accompanied by American assurances Netanyahu may find hard to reject? Or, after consolidating domestic political support and appointing a new military chief of staff, is the veteran Israeli leader planning to impose military rule over the Gaza Strip?

The answers to these questions will likely become apparent in the coming weeks.

So far the goals of ridding the area of Hamas is second to getting the hostages back:

“Israel’s operations are all in line with its stated war goals,” Dr. Harel Chorev of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line. “Its aim is to destroy Hamas and remove it from power, but right now the priority is the release of the hostages.”

As we already know, the Trump relocation proposal is still on the table although the international community has widely panned it. So far, Israel is not going after Hamas as broadly as they want:

According to Yoni Ben Menachem, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, the government will likely seek to take control of the northern Gaza Strip by once again evacuating the civilian population from areas closest to the Israeli border.

“Israel is looking to operate gradually,” Ben Menachem told The Media Line. “If this does not yield progress, Israel will begin to promote Trump’s plan. The current policy involves targeted killings and the gradual displacement of civilians from combat zones in order to steadily take control of Gaza.”

Menachem doesn’t see removing Hamas without also taking back the land:

“Hamas cannot be removed from power without occupying the land,” he added. “Pinpoint incursions will not do the job.”

Hostages Are The Priority

As we expected, Hamas continues to use the hostages as tools to get what they want:

On Monday, Hamas released a sign-of-life video featuring two Israeli hostages. Elkana Bohbot and Yosef-Haim Ohana appeared thin and pale in what appeared to be a scripted propaganda video. Ohana pleaded with Israel to halt its renewed bombardment of Gaza, fearing for their safety.

Israel knows that and is trying to avoid accidentally killing hostages as they attack Hamas:

According to Chorev, apart from the initial day of renewed fighting, which featured a surprise wave of intense airstrikes against Hamas, Israeli operations are currently more surgical.

“This is proof that the hostages are the first priority at the moment,” he explained. “Israel is applying moderate intensity because of this. Otherwise, it could enter with a massive amount of ground troops. By doing this, Israel is signaling to Hamas that it has not yet operated at full force, in the hope that Hamas will make a proposal regarding the hostages. This does not mean Israel has abandoned its ultimate goal of obliterating Hamas.”

As they did in Lebanon, the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is hitting the leadership of Hamas:

Since fighting resumed, Israel has eliminated several senior Hamas political and military figures.

“This indicates better intelligence on Israel’s part,” said Ben Menachem, who believes Israel has improved its understanding of the hostages’ whereabouts. “It was not only Hamas that took advantage of the ceasefire to regroup, but also Israel.”

But it also points to the IDF replacing those leaders:

These developments may also signal Israel’s future intentions. “These killings undermine the leadership that governs the territory and its civilian infrastructure,” said Chorev. “These roles have proven to be major pillars of Hamas’ control over the population.”

Negotiators are also still trying to find a diplomatic solution, but Israel is continuing to keep pressure on Hamas while also coming to grips of a military occupation to finish the job:

Alongside reports of ongoing negotiations, there are also indications that the Israeli military is preparing for a ground offensive that could lead to the imposition of military rule in Gaza. The recent appointment of a new army chief, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, has been seen as part of Israel’s shift toward a more forceful approach to the conflict. Zamir’s predecessor, retired Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, reportedly resisted cabinet efforts to involve the military in the distribution of humanitarian aid and the implementation of military governance in Gaza. Media reports suggest Halevi opposed this direction, reflecting tensions between him and the ultra-nationalist right-wing government.

“In general, the military detests any notion of military rule,” said Chorev. “However, there is an understanding that, at this point in time, it is a necessary evil and there is no other option.”

And I can’t see how completely ridding all of the military tunnels Hamas built any other way.