GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 434

Waiting For A Deal

A Little Compromise

According to a report from The Times Of Israel Hamas is backing off one demand they previously considered a hard line in the sand:

After more than a year of objections, Hamas has given in to an Israeli demand that the IDF remain in Gaza temporarily under a potential ceasefire-hostage deal, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing Arab mediators.

Hamas had for long months insisted that it would not agree to a deal unless it included a permanent end to the war in Gaza and a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Strip. However, the report said the terror organization is seemingly easing its demands and has also provided mediators with a list of hostages that it would release in the first phase of a new deal.

All these changes do indicate that Hamas wants a deal, but Israel is also pushing for changes:

The mediators told The Journal that the list consisted of US nationals, women, older hostages and those with medical conditions, and also included the names of five hostages who have been confirmed to be dead.

The report added that Israeli negotiators were pushing for more hostages to be released in the initial phase of the ceasefire. At the same time, it said they had agreed to a gradual withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border. Hamas has also reportedly agreed that it would not have any involvement in running the Palestinian side of the Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long vowed that Israeli troops would remain on the route.

It sounds good, but I don’t see both sides agreeing to such proposals. Still, the talks continue:

Mossad chief David Barnea met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in Doha on Wednesday to discuss a potential hostage release and Gaza ceasefire deal, a source familiar tells The Times of Israel, confirming an Axios report.

Mossad chief David Barnea visited Doha and met with the prime minister of Qatar on Wednesday to discuss the latest ceasefire and hostage release proposal, a source familiar with the meeting told The Times of Israel, confirming a report in the Axios news outlet.

All sides know that clock is ticking because of comments made by incoming President Trump:

The meeting is part of efforts to reach a deal before the inauguration of Donald Trump in January after months of deadlocked talks.

The details keep changing which is why I don’t see it working over all:

According to the WSJ, the proposal being negotiated would see up to 30 hostages released in a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for which Israel would release Palestinian prisoners from its prisons and up the amount of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip.

This is significantly fewer hostages than last year’s deal in which 10 or so hostages were released every day during a week-long truce.

One source thinks that any deal will have fewer hostages released and a shorter ceasefire.

Netanyahu Isn’t Clear

As we continue to see in the same report, the PM appears to be talking out of both sides of his mouth when telling hostage families where they are in getting a deal:

Netanyahu’s office declined the WSJ’s request for comment on the report, but Dani Miran, whose son Omri Miran is being held hostage in Gaza, told Channel 12 News on Thursday that the prime minister was giving two different groups of hostages’ relatives different information.

Netanyahu met separately on Sunday evening with two hostage family groups in Jerusalem — the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which represents the majority of families, and the Tikva Forum, which represents a hawkish minority who have been significantly more supportive of the government’s handling of the war than the main forum.

Miran was at both events so his view is justified:

However, Miran told Channel 12 that his wife, Lishay, had been in the meeting with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum to whom Netanyahu had said a deal was brewing while his sons attended the Tikva Forum meeting where the prime minister said that “at this stage, there is no deal.”

But Netanyahu also met with US officials:

Netanyahu did, however, meet with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and other top Israeli officials on Thursday as the Biden administration makes a final push to get a deal signed before Trump takes office next month.

Other than Netanyahu and Sullivan, the meeting included Barnea, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and the government’s point man on the hostages, Gal Hirsch.

No matter how many meetings, no deal has been reached and even the movement by Hamas won’t get it done even in light of a ceasefire with Hezbollah:

Numerous attempts to reach a new hostage deal have repeatedly failed over the last year or so as Israel and Hamas have accused each other of sabotaging efforts and have refused to budge on key issues.

However, negotiators have hoped to use the momentum of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah last month to reach an agreement in Gaza too and end the war that broke out on October 7 last year with Hamas’s unprecedented attack in which terrorists murdered some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 hostages.

Why negotiators think that now will be any different just because Hamas is willing to allow the IDF to stay at the Rafah crossings misses that overall differences that haven’t changed. Hamas wants to survive and then tell all the other terrorists organizations that they brought Israel to their knees. That’s not my making things up, they actually have said that is one of their goals. Hezbollah, when they got a ceasefire deal played that card. But Israel has already stated that two goals will be reached to end these conflicts. One is that the northern residents will be able to move back to their businesses and homes and these citizens won’t go back with Hezbollah still active in Lebanon. The second line drawn in the sand is that Hamas will no long have any power at all in Gaza. Any permanent ceasefire that allows Hamas to rule in any way will not be accepted. To get all of the hostages home will require a total defeat of Hamas. In short, it’s never going to happen. If Hamas surrenders and leaves the area and releases all the hostages it will bring peace. If you hear that come up in the talks, then it’s a totally different ball game. Let me know when that happens.