GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 419

Already Breaking It

We Must Discuss The Terms

We’re told in a report from the Jerusalem News Syndicate some interesting parts of the Hezbollah ceasefire deal and I’m sure it won’t make President Trump very happy. I’ll get to that a little later, but for now, let’s see what’s in it:

A confidential clause in the U.S.-Israel side agreement to the Lebanon ceasefire deal focuses on the Islamic Republic, Hebrew media reported on Wednesday.

How confidential is it when I’m telling you about now? But I digress. Israel somehow got concessions about Iran into the deal getting the US to help in the region:

Dubbed the “Iranian clause” by Israeli officials, the provision is part of a two-and-a-half-page letter the full contents of which have not been fully disclosed, according to Channel 12 News.

“The U.S. commits to working with Israel to prevent Iran from destabilizing the region, establishing a foothold in Lebanon, or undermining the principles of the agreement—either directly or through its proxies,” the letter states, according to the report.

Israel must tell the US if they’re taking on Iran and mind their military Ps and Qs:

The “Iranian clause” also stipulates, “If Israel decides to act, it will notify the United States as soon as possible. The United States expects all Israeli actions to comply with international law and aim to minimize harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure.”

I get the heads up part, but Israel already does the other things now. But the next part is very important and one reason why I think this whole deal is very short term:

Additional provisions in the letter reportedly include guarantees of Israeli operational freedom against Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire.

The Israel Defense Forces is authorized to counter immediate threats in Southern Lebanon, such as observed preparations for a Hezbollah rocket launch, and also to address emerging threats, for example the digging of new tunnels or arms transfers, if Lebanon’s government is unwilling or unable to act.

Does anyone really think that Hezbollah, who blatantly ignored the last deal from 2006 will abide by this one for very long if ever? And now for the piece of this clause that incoming President Trump will be infuriated by:

The letter further outlines U.S. responsibilities as chair of the monitoring mechanism, stating, “The United States will lead and direct the Lebanese Armed Forces to prevent and effectively address violations.”

If true, this deal just put the US right in the middle of the war in the Middle East:

An Israeli Cabinet minister described the document as “a significant achievement,” according to Channel 12, adding, “We’ve effectively brought the United States into Lebanon as a primary overseer.”

This was the lame duck US administration’s way of sticking it to the man who ran and won in no small part by saying he will not start any new wars. If the war lasts until January 20th you can bet Trump will nix this deal immediately.

And Right On Cue

We read in an article from The Times Of Israel that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is already taking military action in southern Lebanon not more than a day after the ceasefire went into effect:

The Israel Defense Forces said Thursday that it had carried out an airstrike on a Hezbollah facility in southern Lebanon, less than two days into a fragile ceasefire with the Iran-backed terror group and hours after firing warning shots at suspects who approached border areas that are still off-limits according to the truce.

Fighter jets struck the facility, which was used to hold medium-range rockets, after identifying activity there, according to the military.

The IDF explained what they were doing:

“The IDF is deployed in southern Lebanon, acting and thwarting any violation of the ceasefire agreement,” the IDF added.

Earlier, the IDF said it fired warning shots in several cases at suspicious individuals in several areas of southern Lebanon. In one case, a drone struck near the suspects as a warning measure.

These are the first strikes of what could be more to come as I suspect Hezbollah will try to test the agreement in its early days. Enforcement is the key at the IDF takes it very seriously:

Thursday’s two airstrikes were the first since the ceasefire came into effect early Wednesday, in an effort to end over a year of cross-border violence initiated by Hezbollah last October. The ceasefire sets out a 60-day period for Israeli troops to pull out and for new security arrangements to be made. Hezbollah is banned from operating south of the Litani River, several kilometers from the border.

The 60 days that the IDF has to withdraw means they will be in the area to make sure that the Lebanese army does its job:

“The arrival of suspects, some with vehicles, to several areas in southern Lebanon was identified, which constitutes a violation [of the ceasefire],” the IDF said in a statement.

It said troops “opened fire” as a warning measure, and will “actively enforce violations of the ceasefire agreement.”

Israeli officials have said forces will be withdrawn gradually as it ensures that the agreement is being enforced. Israel says it reserves the right to strike Hezbollah if it violates the terms of the truce.

Lebanon Is Trying

According to the Lebanese, they are beginning to do their part, but I doubt they can do it alone:

A Lebanese military official said on Thursday that Lebanese troops would gradually deploy in the south as the IDF withdraws. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media.

A Lebanese army source said its forces were “conducting patrols and setting up checkpoints” south of the Litani River without advancing into areas where Israeli forces were still present.

In a statement on X on Thursday, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman announced a nighttime curfew in south Lebanon.

Hezbollah is blaming Israel for something I’m certain they are staging by encouraging people to go back now. It is entirely possible they are getting paid to do so or are in fact terrorists dressed as civilians, a tactic used in Gaza by Hamas:

Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah on Thursday accused Israel of attacking people returning to their villages in south Lebanon. The IDF has instructed residents of towns along the border not to return yet, for their own safety.

Lest we forget, Israelis aren’t coming back to their homes in northern Israel and probably won’t until they see a pattern of stability in the area. Read no rockets fired:

Tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel have also not yet returned to their homes.

And a drone was suspected to be seen in Israel which would have been launched by Hezbollah:

Also Thursday, the IDF said that it had fired an air defense interceptor missile over the Western Galilee due to a suspected “suspicious aerial target” spotted over Lebanon. It later declared that the incident was a false alarm.

Yes, it is early in this ceasefire, but the only way the terrorist threats will stop is if Hezbollah no longer has any power in Lebanon. They are in the government and all over the nation from north to south. As we noted earlier they are known to break deals when it suits them. I see them already trying to get arms back through Syria (see this article) and Hezbollah’s precision missile production sites still exist (see this article). This ceasefire will allow Iran to rebuild its prize proxy in the area if they aren’t stopped as well. The good news is that the IDF can also rebuild at the same time. It sounds good on paper, but I personally am already seeing the signs of this agreement falling apart and quickly. One source I have says that things aren’t how they appear in the area. I don’t need to hear that because I know that these surrounding nations will be taken out before the war of Gog and Magog detailed in Ezekiel 38. While your mileage may vary on Bible prophecy, if you adhere to the view that Russia and other nations will come down against Israel, a simple look at a map will show you that the current terrorist ruled nations aren’t listed as the ones attacking Israel. Something happens to them. I think we’re going to see just what now.