GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 393

Fireworks Are Coming

We Can’t Prevent Them

We’re told in a report from The Jerusalem Post that the US is telling Iran that they can’t stop Israel from an unrestrained attack:

The Biden administration recently cautioned Iran against launching another attack on Israel, emphasizing that it could not restrain an Israeli response if provoked again, Walla reported on Saturday evening.

This fits what we keep hearing from the Israeli leadership. They held back with the last strikes, but this time they won’t:

The warning follows Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel, which retaliated against Israeli targeted operations. Israel's response included strikes on military targets but excluded strategic sites like nuclear and oil facilities. These facilities could be potential targets should Iran initiate further attacks.

The direct US communication with Iran is uncommon and hints at what we’ve thought before and that the US did convince Israel to soften their last strikes:

A senior US official disclosed to Walla that Washington informed Tehran it would not be able to prevent Israel from reacting or ensure that any response would remain as limited and precise as before. This communication marked a rare direct message between the US and Iran.

The US wants Iran to pump the brakes on striking back at Israel and even US targets:

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated on Friday that Iran should avoid any response, underlining continued US support for Israel in case of Iranian aggression. Pentagon spokesperson Gen. Pat Ryder announced additional military measures, including deploying destroyers for missile defense, a fighter squadron, refueling aircraft, and long-range B-52 bombers to the region. Ryder emphasized that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has made clear the US would act decisively to protect its forces and interests should Iran or its proxies strike.

As we’ve talked about before, it’s not a matter of if but then Iran will strike:

Recent Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is preparing to launch an attack on Israel from Iraqi territory, potentially within days and possibly before the US presidential election. Officials in Israel stated that this potential assault could involve Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps collaborating with Shiite militias using drones and ballistic missiles. American sources confirmed the likelihood of such an attack in the short term.

If Iran attacks only using their proxies it could affect the response:

Israel and the US believe that if Iran utilizes militias in Iraq, it aims to avoid a direct confrontation that could provoke another Israeli strike on its territory. Israeli and US officials emphasized that Israel’s response would be contingent on the scale and impact of any such attack.

I can’t see Iran holding back at all, though. But their options were vastly limited after the IDF’s surgical strikes on their air defenses and missile production systems.

Hezbollah Still Firing Away

We see in an article from The Times Of Israel that Hezbollah continues hit Israel using rockets and drones:

Over 130 rockets were fired at northern Israel from Lebanon throughout Saturday, the military said, with sirens repeatedly sending people rushing to shelters.

Meanwhile, 10 drones targeted the country — six from Lebanon, three from Iraq and one whose origin was unclear. Seven drones were intercepted by the military.

The consistent ability of one rocket attack getting through while two are intercepted continues:

A rocket attack early in the morning in central Israel wounded 11 people after one of three rockets struck a home in Tira. The IDF said it was investigating the failure to intercept the rocket.

A drone was taken down by the IAF and it was posted online:

An Israel Air Force attack helicopter was filmed intercepting a Hezbollah drone in the Binyamina area, south of Haifa, after the drone set off sirens in area communities.

Footage posted to social media showed the moment the drone was shot down.

Although these attacks are mostly repelled they still manage to hit some sites which is a troubling thing. Imagine if that same ratio is applied to an attack of 1,000 missiles? This is something the IDF needs to figure out and soon. Yes, Hezbollah still only has about 30% of their drones left, but that is still a threat to Israeli targets. But there is some good news as we read in another article from The Times Of Israel:

Israeli naval commandos captured a Hezbollah official in a raid in northern Lebanon late Friday, the military confirmed on Saturday night, marking an unusual operation both in its nature and location deep inside the country.

The operation was one of stealth and speed:

Lebanese media reported that Israeli special forces arrived from the sea and raided a chalet on the coast of Batroun, south of Tripoli, and took one person with them before leaving the area in speedboats.

The raid took place some 140 kilometers (87 miles) north of Israel’s maritime border with Lebanon.

The IDF knew exactly who they wanted and intentionally took him alive so he could be questioned:

The Hezbollah operative, named in media reports as Imad Amhaz, was considered by the IDF to be a “significant source of knowledge” in the terror group’s naval force.

He was taken to Israel to be questioned by the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504 — which specializes in HUMINT, or human intelligence — on Hezbollah’s naval operations.

So, while Hezbollah attacks continue so do the attacks on Hezbollah and their leaders. I still believe that Iran and all their proxies are gearing up for an all out attack on Israel while they still can. It is thought to be a Samson strategy where the unusually strong Israeli man died while taking out more Philistines than he killed in his lifetime. I could be wrong, but it is something the terrorists and Iran already say they are going to do. Their pride will get the better of them. As you pray for the peace of Jerusalem add these new details to those prayers.