GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 387

Iran Is Fearful

Only Some Of Their Ability

We learn from a report seen in The Times Of Israel that the IDF didn’t unfold all of what it can do when they attacked Iran:

Speaking after Israel’s reprisal strikes on Iran early yesterday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi says the military used “only some” of its abilities.

Halevi stated that the IDF can do much more if needed:

“Our message is a very clear message, and it is connected to the things that have happened across the Middle East in recent months. We know how to reach and hit any threat, in any place, at any time,” Halevi says during an assessment yesterday, in a video just released by the IDF.

“We drew upon only some of our abilities. We have the ability to do much more. We hit strategic systems in Iran… and we will see how things develop now. We are ready for all scenarios on all fronts,” he adds.

Iran, for it’s part might just test those comments as we read in an article from i24news.tv:

“Iran has the right and the duty to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression,” Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

They also made a point that they lost two of their army but also lost the ability to defend their airport in Tehran:

Iranian state news agency Tasnim offered a terse statement reporting that two soldiers were killed in the strikes.

Iranian officials who spoke to the The New York Times on condition of anonymity said that the sites targeted included the S-300 air defense of Imam Khomeini International Airport outside Tehran.

Israel made it clear that if Iran decides to attack, and I think they will, the IDF is ready:

Israel for its part warned Iran against responding.

“If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said after the four-hour operation was completed.

If Iran decides to change their mind and come after Israel it will not likely be a small strike. They need to show strength to their people and to the Arab world overall. Israel seriously embarrassed them and only used part of what they are capable of doing.

Operation Fear

The IDF named their Iran mission “Operation Days of Repentance” but they might as well have called it “Operation Fear” as we see in an article from the Jewish News Syndicate:

Israel’s aerial offensive inside Iran overnight Friday caused severe damage to Tehran’s ballistic missile program, according to analyses of satellite imagery.

Dubbed by Jerusalem “Operation Days of Repentance,” the strikes were in response to Iran firing a barrage of some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1. Some 100 Israeli fighter jets, spy planes and refueling aircraft flew across the Middle East on Friday night to attack 20 missile and drone facilities across Iran in three waves.

As we reported yesterday, the strikes were precise and were not just a show of strength, although there that, too:

The Israeli strikes may have “significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles,” Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization based in Washington, told Reuters after examining the satellite photos.

The news agency also cited David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector.

The article gives more details about just how much damage was done to Iran’s weapons making plants:

According to the researchers, Israeli fighter jets bombed buildings at Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran, as well as Khojir, a sprawling missile production site close to the capital that Reuters reported in July was undergoing significant expansion.

Albright said that commercial satellite imagery also shows damage to Taleghan 2, a building in Parchin that was previously linked to Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. It was used for testing activities during the Amad project, which started in 1989 and stopped in 2003, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, but which Israel suspects to have continued.

The IDF also hit fuel mixers:

According to Albright, Israel damaged three buildings about 350 yards (320 meters) from Taleghan 2, including two in which solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.

Eveleth said that satellite imagery from Parchin provided by Planet Labs showed that Israel destroyed three ballistic missile solid-fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse.

The Planet Labs imagery also showed the destruction of two buildings at Khojir where solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.

Just how much that means in real terms is that Iran can’t just replace these mixers overnight:

“Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers. These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them,” Eveleth noted, adding that “the strikes appear to be highly accurate.”

U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal that it could take years to restore Iran’s ballistic missile industry following the Israeli attacks.

Another news site added this:

Axios reported that Israel destroyed 12 mixers used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, with three unnamed Israeli sources saying that the attack caused severe damage to Tehran’s ability to renew its missile stockpile and could deter the Islamic Regime from committing to more massive missile attacks on the Jewish state.

In short, shooting more missiles will deplete their supplies, supplies they can’t replace:

The Saudi website Elaph reported that each fuel mixer is valued at a minimum of $2 million and that a large number were destroyed. Sources familiar with Tehran’s missile industry told the Saudi site that it would take at least two years to bring the plant back into operation, emphasizing that Israel has significantly set back Tehran’s missile production capabilities.

They Are Vulnerable

Without the missiles to shoot, Iran is in danger. Even their economy can be at risk:

Iranian officials told The New York Times that the Israeli strikes have caused serious concern that the country is now exposed to future Israeli attacks, with sources in Iran and Israel telling the Times that Israel destroyed air defense systems protecting the country’s oil, gas and petrochemical facilities.

Israeli fighter jets reportedly attacked the air defense systems at the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex and nearby economic port in Khuzestan province, the Abadan refinery and the Tange Bijar gas field in Ilam province and at Khomeini International Airport in Tehran.

Three Russia-made S-300 air-defense systems were reportedly disabled at the airport and at the Malad missile base near the capital. In April, Israel responded to the first-ever direct Iranian attack with an attack on the air defense radar site at an airbase near Isfahan, in central Iran.

According to one source, Israel made their point:

“Israel is sending us a very clear message,” Hamid Hosseini, an expert in Iran’s gas and oil industry, told The New York Times. “This could have very serious economic implications for Iran, and now we understand the risk and that we need to act wisely and not continue with the tension.”

And there could be more “messages” sent:

Ali Vaez, an Iran researcher, told the Times that the attack could set up a much heavier attack on Iran’s nuclear and energy facilities.

“Iran does not have the capability to replace the damaged facilities in the near future,” he said.

Contrary To What You Heard

The report ends with telling us the US didn’t pressure Israel into changing its strikes:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office on Saturday night denied reports that American pressure limited the Israeli attack, calling the reports “completely false.”

Other Israelis countered that statement:

Two Israeli sources told the Times that the original plans crafted immediately after the Iranian missile attack called for targeting Tehran’s nuclear program and energy industry, but that Jerusalem chose to only attack air defense systems protecting these sites due to intense American pressure.

The Prime Minster’s Office shot back:

“Israel chose its targets for the attack based on its national interests, not according to American dictates. This was the case and will remain so,” the PMO statement read.

In his first public remarks since the attack, Netanyahu on Sunday stated that the mission was successful while thanking Washington for backing Jerusalem.

”We severely damaged Iran’s defense capabilities and its ability to produce missiles aimed at us. The strike was precise and powerful, achieving all its objectives. I thank the United States for the close coordination and support,” the premier said, stressing that “major challenges still lie ahead of us.”

The PM was at a ceremony to mourn for those killed and hurt on October 7th:

Netanyahu was speaking at a memorial ceremony at Mount Herzl military cemetery as Israel observed a national day of mourning for the victims of the Hamas-led massacre of Oct. 7, 2023.

Iran is still in denial about the strikes:

Iran’s regime has publicly downplayed the significance of the attack, saying that “very light warheads” were used and calling the damage “limited.”

As we know, the strikes were anything but limited. As for what Iran will do next, well they keep sending us mixed signals:

Furthermore, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reportedly held a high-level emergency meeting after the attack, with military commanders briefing on the attack and the council discussing a possible response, but with no decision made.

While Reuters quoted the foreign ministry as saying that Iran was “entitled and obligated” to defend itself, the news agency noted a more conciliatory tone in the statement compared to previous rounds of escalation, with the ministry adding that it “recognizes its responsibilities towards regional peace and security.”

What we know is that Iran and its proxies are getting hit harder and harder and at some point they may let their pride get the best of them and attack from all sides with whatever capacity they have left. And if they do, Israel could suffer significant losses, but it will also push them to use the rest of their special abilities that they keep hinting at having. There may come a time when just crying uncle won’t work.