GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 376

Softening Stance On Iran

No Hostage Deal

We see in a report from the Jewish News Syndicate that the Israel Defense Minister says that the hostage talks have stalled:

During a meeting on Monday with the families of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant painted a grim picture.

Gallant told them that Hamas isn’t willing to compromise and the US isn’t pushing it:

Hamas has hardened its stance and negotiations have reached a stalemate, he said, according to Ynet. “I hope we reach something, but right now there is no lead,” Gallant told the families. “Hamas is slow in establishing contact, communication is crawling, and there is no central control by [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar or his people.”

Furthermore, “The Americans are not really on this,” he said.

He then fleshed out the logic for the delayed negotiations:

Gallant’s pessimism stems from the changing dynamics both in Gaza and the broader region. He informed the families that the focus of tensions has shifted to Israel’s northern border, with expectations of potential escalation involving Hezbollah and possibly Iran. “What is happening in the north serves Hamas, and they are waiting,” Gallant explained, suggesting that the terrorist group is hoping to leverage regional tensions to its advantage.

As would be expected, the hostage families weren’t happy about what he told them

The families’ frustration was palpable following the meeting. One parent of a captive, speaking to Ynet, expressed their disappointment: “The defense minister didn’t tell us anything new. There is a complete stalemate between the sides, and there is no lead to renew the negotiations. Our frustration has worsened, as there hasn’t been such a stuck period since Oct. 7.”

Israel, wants to get negotiations up and running again but Hamas is resistant. And if a deal that connects the fighting with Hezbollah is sought, they would agree, but that isn’t on the table:

Despite the challenges, Israel is attempting to restart negotiations and continue talks on multiple fronts. Israel Security Agency Director Ronen Bar made a secret visit to Cairo on Sunday, meeting with Egypt’s intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Kamal, according to Hebrew media reports. This marks the first visit by a senior Israeli official to Egypt since Aug. 22.

Amid these diplomatic efforts, Brig. Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch, Jerusalem’s point man on the abductee issue, remains committed to the cause. Speaking at the World Summit on Counter-Terrorism at Herzliya’s Reichman University, Hirsch stated, “Negotiation efforts and moves related to negotiations are taking place constantly. The problem is the time it is taking.” He added, “We are still unable to get to effective negotiations with Hamas, which torpedoes talks all the time.” This shift in focus has apparently altered Israel’s negotiation strategy. Gallant stated on Monday that Israel is now seeking a large-scale, one-time deal for hostage release, saying according to Ynet that, “If an opportunity arises to link the arenas of Gaza and Lebanon for a deal, Israel would use it, even though so far, efforts have been made to separate the connection Hezbollah is trying to create.” However, Gallant added that the United States has shied away from a deal that would see all of the hostages released at once.

Nuke Sites Off The Table

We’re told by an article from The Times Of Israel that Prime Minister Netanyahu isn’t planning on striking Iran’s nuclear sites but only military sites:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told US President Joe Biden that Israel’s retaliation against Iran for its ballistic missile attack will not include strikes on non-military sites, according to a report Monday suggesting the Israeli premier had curtailed planned action to avoid interfering with the US election.

While that sounds like the PM is giving in, Netanyahu also said that he might change his mind depending on Israel’s security needs. But for now this softer stance is one reason the US is sending Israel a new missile defense system:

The Washington Post report, citing two officials familiar with the matter, including one identified as a US official, pointed to Netanyahu’s softening stance as a key factor in the US decision to send an advanced anti-ballistic missile air defense system to Israel.

The region is still on pins and needles waiting for the promised counterstrike on Iran:

The Middle East has been on high alert for weeks as it awaits Israel’s promised reprisal after Iran launched some 200 ballistic missiles at the country on October 1 in revenge for the killing of Hezbollah terror chief Hassan Nasrallah.

The US administration is trying frantically to lower those tensions:

The US has sought to temper Jerusalem’s plans to retaliate for the attack — which forced most of the country to rush to bomb shelters and safe rooms, and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank — fearing that the escalating tit-for-tats could spark a wider war drawing in others in the region. The attack caused damage in Israel, including in Israeli airbases, though the military has said that no aircraft or critical infrastructure were hit, and the Israeli Air Force was operating at full capacity.

The two leaders talked and the PM told him only military sites our being targeted:

Israel had previously been thought to be mulling attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure or nuclear sites, both opposed by the US for their potential to escalate fighting, including Iranian reprisals aimed at civilian infrastructure in Israel or other regional states aligned with the West.

One source said that one of the reasons is purely political:

According to one official cited in the report, Israel’s retaliation will be designed to avoid “political interference in the US elections.”

An attack on oil infrastructure could lead to higher energy prices, while a strike on a nuclear facility might widen the fighting and draw in US involvement. American voters unhappy with either outcome could voice their displeasure at the ballot box, hurting Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris and helping Republican Donald Trump.

The report also tells us that the rest of the world wants Israel to not strike Iran’s nuclear capacity or its oil production:

Gulf states have also lobbied Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates.

Hedging His Bets

However, as I noted earlier, Netanyahu gave himself some wiggle room:

Responding to the report in a late-night message, the Prime Minister’s Office indicated that Israel’s security needs would trump any other calculus.

“We listen to the American government’s thoughts, but will make our final decisions based on Israel’s national security needs,” the PMO said in a statement.

Reading between the lines on that we can say that Netanyahu is watching all the terrorist threats around Israel and will do whatever it needs to do to survive. If Iran and its proxies come hard at them, dealing Iran a crippling blow is back on the table. For now, the softened stance is playing well in the US:

The officials quoted by the Post said that Netanyahu’s “more moderated” stance had calmed US fears and prompted Biden to agree to send Israel a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system, or THAAD, to protect it from whatever reprisal Iran launches in response to Israel’s retaliation.

The Pentagon confirmed on Sunday that it was sending a THAAD battery to Israel, along with around 100 soldiers to operate the system.

The actual timing of the attack isn’t set, but could happen before the US elections:

The report also suggested that Israel was keeping the timing of its reprisal open-ended, though one official said it would come before the November 5 election, describing the imminent action as “one in a series of responses.”

The PM also said he isn’t necessarily going to need the approval of the US before the strikes:

A source close to Netanyahu quoted by the newspaper said the premier was coordinating with the US but would not await the White House’s okay before launching its strike.

Another Israeli security meeting is scheduled for early next week:

Netanyahu was set to convene a security meeting Monday night at the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv, the office of one of the participating ministers told The Times of Israel.

The meeting was the latest ostensibly called to discuss Israel’s looming reprisal, though reports said ministers had not been asked to approve plans in previous discussions.

There was no official statement on the meeting.

The talk between Netanyahu and Biden may have closed the divide between the two:

Previous reports have suggested that the call between Netanyahu and Biden, the first in some two months, had helped bring Washington and Jerusalem closer together on the Iran issue after the countries appeared to stop coordinating on Israeli strikes against Hezbollah amid fraying ties between the leaders.

Still, Israel’s strike plans is tougher than the US administration wants:

However, an official quoted by Axios after the call said Israel’s planned response was still more aggressive than the US would prefer.

Overall, I still see Iran using any response as an excuse to hit Israel from all sides and plunge the region into a knockdown, drag out war, one I still see as Israel winning to fulfill Bible prophecy. In that light we need to still pray for the peace of Jerusalem as a larger war is just over the horizon.