GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 347

Call Me Maybe

A Very Explosive Attack

In what I see as the most bizarre, creative and yet effective attack on terrorists, Israel somehow exploded thousands of pagers as we learn in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

In the most significant hit Lebanese terrorist and Iranian proxy group Hezbollah has taken in recent years, in an event that rocked Lebanon, over 3,600 people were wounded throughout the country on Tuesday – a large majority of them Hezbollah members – at around 3:30 p.m., when the pagers that they used to communicate exploded. Additional Hezbollah operatives in Syria and Iraq fell victim to the attack as well.

This was not just a nuisance tactic and it basically targeted terrorists, but those near these exploding pagers were affected as well:

Lebanon’s Health Minister Firass Abiad said that around 4,000 were wounded and 200 people were critically wounded, and the ministry was closing in on a dozen who had already died.

Even an Iranian official was wounded, but the leader of Hezbollah wasn’t at least that’s what they’re telling us:

The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was reportedly wounded in the explosion, according to Iranian state-owned Mehr News Agency, as were a variety of senior Hezbollah officials and relatives of the terrorist group’s parliamentary MPs.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was reportedly unharmed – or at least still was in command – and the group’s public relations arm issued multiple messages blaming Israel, threatening a powerful counterstrike.

This attack was approved shortly before it happened:

Later in the day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met with other top defense officials to evaluate the state of play between the sides.

Likewise, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi later held a situation assessment with the IDF high command.

After the pagers exploded the IDF was preparing for anything from Hezbollah:

At around 8:15 p.m., the IDF Home Front Command said that there was no change in defensive guidelines or movement restrictions, though virtually all Israeli defense officials were expecting a significant response from Hezbollah.

As would be expected, the terrorists from the north are being vague:

In an initial statement, Hezbollah said, “This afternoon, several messaging devices known as ‘pagers,’ which are owned by a number of workers in various Hezbollah units and institutions, exploded.”

It said that it was carrying out an investigation to determine the causes of the blasts, with many different theories surfacing.

However they are pointing the finger at Israel:

A senior Lebanese security source told Al Hadath that Israel infiltrated the communication system of individual devices and detonated them.

More Details

We stay with the Post article to find out more on the unique attack:

According to reports, the beepers and communications devices were called before they exploded, increasing the chances that whoever received the call would pick it up and be maximally wounded.

The pagers were relatively new:

The pagers that detonated were the latest model brought in by Hezbollah in recent months – well into the 11 months of cross-border fire with Israel – three security sources told Reuters.

Some noticed something odd while others didn’t see it coming:

A Hezbollah official cited by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said that hundreds of members had such pager devices, and speculated that malware could have caused them to heat up and explode. The same official cited by the WSJ said that some people felt the pagers heat up, disposing of them before they exploded.

As more time has passed since it happened, more and more sources are saying it wasn’t just random accident:

One such official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the detonation of the pagers was the “biggest security breach” the group had been subjected to in nearly a year of war with Israel.

And now the accusations are more precise although Israel hasn’t owned up to doing it:

Another Lebanese security source claimed that Israel hacked into Hezbollah’s radio communication system and caused the explosions.

According to Al Hadath, the IDF detonated the communication devices remotely, using advanced technology. However, Israel has not taken responsibility for the explosions.

The explosions caused a lot of panic and scrambling in Lebanon:

Ambulances rushed through the southern suburbs of the capital, Beirut, amid widespread panic. Residents said explosions were taking place even 30 minutes after the initial blasts.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry urged health workers to head to hospitals, according to the Arab media channel NBN.

And then there is the coverup attempt, something that didn’t work as social media buzzed immediately when it happened:

Hussein Mortada, a Hezbollah-affiliated journalist who works for the Syrian news agency Al-Alam, warned individuals and media in Lebanon not to post any videos or photos of the event, especially of the wounded, on X/Twitter.

And Now The Possible Why

With all the pressure on Israel’s leadership to take on the threat of Hezbollah, this could be another way the PM and his team are creating instability in the terrorist’s leadership:

Israel has struggled – for a year now – with the challenge of creating a new security situation in the North. 60,000 border residents were evacuated in October 2023 following an unprovoked rocket attack by Hezbollah, and have since been unable to return to their homes.

Israel's previous responses to Hezbollah

From October until December, Israel mostly kept its responses very limited.

It looks like the gloves are slowly being taken off now that Hamas appears to be neutered:

From December and through February, the IDF started to actively hunt down Hezbollah aggressors and potential attackers, targeting them as they hid in populated villages, and killing a range of Hezbollah commanders.

From March until July, there were ups and downs in the conflict with Hezbollah, with some days seeing single digits of rockets or drone attacks, and others seeing as many as 200 rockets in a single day.

Further, as time went on, both Israel and Hezbollah started attacking areas in the other side’s territory further from the border and larger cities. Hezbollah attacked Safed and Nahariya, and the IDF attacked as far as Baalback, which is 100 kilometers into Lebanese territory.

But those tit for tat attacks ended at the end of July:

However, on July 30, Israel killed Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr in Beirut.

With the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh while he was in Iran, both Hezbollah and the Iranians have vowed revenge. Hezbollah went first, but with little effect:

When Hezbollah prepared to launch several hundred – up to 1,000 – rockets on Israel on August 25, the IDF carried out a massive preemptive strike, eliminating the vast majority of the threats. The terrorist group did manage to launch between 250-350 aerial threats, causing minor damage.

All eyes are turning to the north with Hamas on life support with some thinking diplomacy can deal with the tensions, but it may be too late for talk:

But with the IDF completing its defeat of Hamas’s last battalion in Rafah on August 21, Israel has turned its attention toward resolving the conflict with Hezbollah by diplomacy if possible. However, the more probable option of using military force was increasing.

The Jerusalem Post has received a number of indications in recent days that the chances of a much larger battle with Hezbollah were now the highest they have been since the start of the war.

A possible assassination attempt on a top Israeli official could have been the straw that broke the camel’s back before the pager attack:

Hours after the Shin Bet revealed a Hezbollah plot to assassinate a top former Israeli defense official, and after a reported meeting between Mossad director David Barnea and Netanyahu, the beeper explosions started to go off.

The plan could have been years in the making:

Despite announcing his upcoming resignation, the Post has learned that IDF Brig.-Gen. Unit 8200 Commander Yossi Sariel was still in command of Israel’s prized cyber-attack unit at this time.

There have also been reports that whoever designed this beeper operation may have set this plan in motion going back four years, which would have crossed over with the era of Yossi Cohen being the Mossad chief.

This story is still expanding as more and more details leak out from both sides, but I’d like to know if anyone who had cell phone pager attack on their Israel war bingo cards. I know I didn’t.