GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 317

Hamas Says No

Not Budging

According to a report from The Jerusalem Post Hamas said no to the current “bridging” offer on the table by the US:

Hamas rejected America's “bridging proposal” to help finalize a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Israel Sunday night amid a major diplomatic blitz by the Biden administration to finalize an agreement this week.

Here are the details of that offer:

The “bridging proposal” placed new conditions on the exchange of hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel, Hamas said as he referred to Palestinian security prisoners and terrorists that would be released in the deal. Other agreements previously arrived at have been retracted, it explained.

The US proposal essentially corresponds to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of a permanent ceasefire and a refusal to allow for the IDF to fully withdraw from Gaza, Hamas said.

On the key issues, both Hamas and Israel aren’t changing at all:

The terror group spoke up after Netanyahu's office released a statement that left no room for doubt as to where Netanyahu stood on the issue of a permanent ceasefire, which has been a key Hamas demand.

The Prime Minister’s Office stressed that Israel has not given up on one of its most fundamental demands, that it must be allowed to continue to battle Hamas in Gaza until such time as it has ousted the terror group from the enclave, a goal it has yet to complete ten months into the war.

Hamas has insisted that the deal must include an Israeli agreement for a permanent ceasefire.

There is agreement that talks about a ceasefire would start during phase one of a three phase deal that could last up to 6 months. Apparently, Hamas pulled back on that, instead wanting a commitment to a permanent ceasefire agreed upon before phase one even starts:

The Prime Minister’s Office said Sunday that Hamas had retracted that demand. For months there were those that claimed “Hamas would never agree to give in on ending the war as a condition for a deal, and proposed giving in to Hamas's demand.

“They were wrong then – and they are also wrong today. The Prime Minister has strongly insisted on this fundamental demand, which is vital to achieving the goals of the war, and Hamas changed its position,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated.

Loose Lips

Also getting in the way of a deal are what the PM says are leaks of the proposals getting out into the public which was noted in the Post article. We learned more through those leaks regardless in an article from i24news.tv:

A senior Hamas official revealed new details about the recent US proposal, presented during ceasefire negotiations held in Doha, the capital of Qatar, according to the Saudi Asharq News channel on Sunday.

The discussed proposal reportedly includes reduced Israeli military presence on the Philadelphia Corridor, and not a withdrawal from it, alongside the return of the Palestinian Authority to administer the smuggling chokepoint in southern Gaza Strip.

The nature of collaboration between the PA and Israeli forces have not yet been determined, as Israel will still maintain a presence.

Another key piece of the agreement was that Israel will supervise the Netzarim corridor which would allow Gazans to return to their northern homes:

The senior source also emphasized that the US proposal includes Israeli supervision at the Netzarim Corridor, vetting Gazans returning to northern Gaza, although the nature of this has also not yet been determined.

Of course Hamas’s leaked information makes Israel look bad:

The senior Hamas official also told the Saudi channel that the US has proposed Israel being able to oppose the release of a minimum of a hundred Palestinian prisoners, and that there would not be a full withdrawal of the IDF. This is contrary to what Hamas said it agreed to in early July.

The talks also gave the IDF a trigger for starting the fighting again:

The channel also reported that the American proposal includes further discussion on a permanent ceasefire within a certain framework. If Hamas does not agree to Israel's demands on this issue, the IDF will resume fighting. The source further clarified that negotiations on the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and the lifting of the siege will be held after the discussions that lead to the first stage of the deal.

Of course Hamas opposes these conditions:

The Hamas source said that the US proposal aims to bridge gaps between the stances of the parties, and it contradicts the proposal from July 2. He added that Hamas opposes these proposals; however, it is waiting for the final version of the agreement to be presented to it before announcing its final position.

PM – No Hope

We learn from a report from The Times Of Israel that internally Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn’t see a great deal of hope for a deal if Hamas doesn’t take one demand off the table:

Offering more details of today’s meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s hostage-ceasefire negotiators, Channel 12 says Netanyahu has not budged on his demand for an ongoing Israeli presence at the Philadelphi Corridor even after the Wednesday-Thursday Doha summit. He did not shift even after the negotiators told him “It’s either Philadelphi or a deal,” Channel 12 says.

Netanyahu even went further on the issue:

In fact, the TV report goes on, Netanyahu told Israel’s negotiators that if Hamas does not withdraw its demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, there will indeed be no deal.

There are some areas where Hamas appeared to be moving closer to Israel’s demands:

The negotiators told Netanyahu that they had managed to bring the US mediators closer to Israel’s positions and demands on most issues, including such crucial matters as how many living hostages would be released in the first phase of the deal and the mechanism regarding the Palestinian security prisoners who would go free.

Ultimately, the corridor is going to be the end of any deal and negotiators blame the PM:

But they reportedly told the prime minister that “they are certain” that the issue of an ongoing IDF presence on the Philadelphi Corridor is “a deal-breaker.” They told Netanyahu that the US, Egyptian and Qatari mediators regard Israel’s demand for an ongoing presence at the Gaza-Egypt border as indicating that the prime minister is not truly interested in a deal, and that they are not prepared to press Hamas with full force to accept it.

Netanyahu’s team tried to get him to change his views, but he remained steadfast because that corridor needs to have the IDF physically there:

Compromise is needed, the negotiators reportedly told the prime minister. And they stressed that there are “security solutions” that would allow an IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor.

Netanyahu reportedly told them in response that Philadelphi is not merely a security issue. It is a strategic issue, he reportedly said, since a temporary withdrawal can become permanent. Israel, he reportedly said, needs to control all the border crossings, and access to the Gaza Strip from all directions, as a matter of strategic importance.

At that point his negotiators told him any deal is off and the PM agreed:

The negotiators reportedly insisted that, if so, there would be no deal, and that they have nothing to work with.

Netanyahu then said he was prepared to discuss how the troops would be deployed, but not to compromise on the fundamental imperative for them to be present. If Hamas continues to insist on a full IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, there will be no deal, Netanyahu reportedly said.

So when talks resume this week Israel’s team will have to bring that response with them:

It is with that message that he is sending Israel’s negotiators to Cairo for more talks, the report says.

Is there still hope? If there is it will have to come from the US changing Netanyahu’s mind:

It adds, however, that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be meeting Netanyahu on the core issues of the deal tomorrow, and says that efforts are nonetheless ongoing right now with the Egyptians to see if there is some potential for flexibility.

As for me, the only thing in all these talks is that they may agree to a first phase with only 25 hostages or less being released. That’s why the PM is trying to get the number of hostages as high as he can in the first phase because even he knows that Hamas will not agree to much else. And as for a permanent ceasefire at any point in the future? Not a chance. Hamas wants to survive and Israel considers them dead men walking. There’s not a lot or room for a deal there.