GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 310

Mixed Signals

Depends On Who You Talk To

As I researched this podcast I find myself wondering who was right about when or if Iran would attack Israel after multiple assassinations. A report in i24news.tv said this:

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly convinced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to postpone the expected attack on Israel, according to the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida on Sunday.

In addition, the US has reportedly opened a hotline with Iran, demanding Tehran delay its retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by at least two weeks. Iran allegedly agreed, a result of the hotline opening over the weekend.

So the attack was delayed for 2 weeks. Or was it? Moving to a report from The Jerusalem Post it could happen in 2 days:

Iran might carry out an attack on Israel in the coming days, potentially even before the upcoming Thursday summit on the hostage deal negotiations, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

This represents a shift from recent assessments, which suggested that international pressure was restraining Iran from launching a direct attack against Israel.

Israel’s sources say the attack is coming sooner than later:

The most recent evaluation by the Israeli intelligence community, formed within the past 24 hours, indicates that Iran has decided to directly target Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh.

As the i24news.tv report asserts, the attack is on hold:

The sources noted that this marks a significant change from recent assessments, which suggested that international pressure was preventing Iran from executing a direct strike against Israel.

Inside the halls of power in Iran there appears to be a divided front on things:

A source with knowledge of the situation revealed that in recent days, there has been an internal debate in Iran between the Revolutionary Guards and the new Iranian president and his advisors. The debate centers on the nature and timing of the response to Haniyeh's assassination. The Revolutionary Guards have been advocating for a more severe and widespread response than the April 13 attack, while the president and his advisors believe that such a harsh response should be avoided.

Another source familiar with the situation said that the situation "remains fluid," with the internal debate in Iran ongoing, which means that Iranian decision-making could still change.

As for Israel, they are readying for an attack and will alert the Israeli citizens

IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari posted on X that there is no change in the Home Front Command directives following reports of an upcoming Iranian attack, saying that they will inform the public if any changes are necessary and that the IDF is monitoring enemy forces throughout the Middle East - with an emphasis on Iran and Hezbollah.

Sinwar Wants A Deal Now?

Moving on to yet another situation where there are mixed signals being given, according to some sources the last man standing for Hamas wants a ceasefire deal like yesterday as we read in an article from The Jerusalem Post:

Hamas head Yahya Sinwar allegedly wants a ceasefire deal, CNN reported, citing Israeli sources familiar with the subject.

According to the CNN report, the Egyptian and Qatari mediators informed Israeli officials of Sinwar’s stance in the last several days, ahead of a hostage negotiation summit later toward the end of the second week of August.

Talk is cheap in these negotiations. And when both sides saying they want a deal, literally the devil’s in the details:

It is uncertain whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would accept a ceasefire deal, according to CNN.

In yet another sign of mixed signals, the same article says the PM wants a deal, but his party is not buying it:

According to the prime minister’s allies, Netanyahu is ready to make a deal, regardless of how it impacts his coalition, two Israeli sources told CNN, however Israel’s security body is significantly more skeptical of his willingness due to opposition from far-right ministers in the coalition.

And a former intelligence officer doubts Sinwar is being genuine:

Earlier, Rami Ingra, former head of the hostages and missing person directorate in the Mossad contradicted the CNN report, saying that Sinwar "does not want a deal and has no reason to achieve a deal right now" in a conversation with Radio 103FM on Sunday.

Ingra thinks that any deal is all on Sinwar, not Netanyahu:

"It pains me to defend Netanyahu, but at the same time, the current situation, in my opinion, does not depend on him at all," he said, explaining that Sinwar has gotten "stronger."

The Israel Finance Minister sees it even differently:

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called the deal a “Sinwar surrender deal” on Friday.

Whether it is about when or if Iran attacks or if a hostage deal is close or not, the overall feeling is that it really depends on who you talk with now. Personally I think that Iran has to respond as does Hezbollah if they want to maintain any respect with their proxies and really, the Arab world. The variable there is will these attacks be scaled back or not? Israel, for its part has options and is ready for any eventuality. As you pray for the hostages, for the people of Israel and Israel’s leaders, ask God to give them wisdom from on high and the anointing of the Sons of Issachar so they don’t fall into any traps set for them. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem overall and specifically for the military and intelligence agencies that are integral to the survival of Israel.