GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 308

Will Diplomacy Prevail?

Hostage Negotiations Continue

Most of the talk in the Middle East is about attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, but hostage talks are apparently also heating up as we see in a report from The Times Of Israel:

Hamas has demanded the release of top Fatah figure and jailed Intifada leader Marwan Barghouti in the first phase of a proposed ceasefire and hostage release deal with Israel, Arabic media reported Friday.

The release of the terrorist could be yet another hitch in any deal but Israel hasn’t indicated if they will accept that request:

According to a Sky News Arabia report, mediators — including the United States — accepted the demand for the highly popular Palestinian leader to be among the first security prisoners released in exchange for the Gaza hostages, should Israel and Hamas finalize a deal that has been in the works for months.

There was no immediate confirmation or reaction to the report from Israel.

Barghouti is not ordinary prisoner:

Barghouti is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison for his part in planning three terror attacks that killed five Israelis during the Second Intifada.

He could be helpful if Hamas survives the fighting:

Citing unnamed sources, Sky News Arabia reported that Hamas has demanded Barghouti’s release as the terror group knows it cannot return to power in the Gaza Strip and sees the former head of Fatah’s Tanzim terrorist faction as a useful ally it could trust to run the Strip according to its liking.

This isn’t the first time they wanted Barghouti in a deal:

The terror group was previously said to have demanded Barghouti’s release during negotiations for a deal that ultimately fell through back in March.

The terrorist could lead the Palestinian Authority if Hamas is fully destroyed:

Barghouti, 64, is often touted as one of the top candidates to succeed octogenarian Mahmoud Abbas as leader of the Palestinian Authority. He is especially favored by the younger generation, who perceive him as untainted by the PA’s corruption and collaboration with Israel.

Hamas will most likely hold to this demand if only to see where Israel will draw the line. If they refuse to release Barghouti it could be a way to then ask who they would release in the hopes of getting someone they wouldn’t otherwise see released if they asked about them first. I think Israel will only agree to a deal that allows them to get the hostages released and start the battle again.

It Could All Be Moot

While all the talks about a hostage deal are swirling around, there may not be a leader to agree to it as we learn from an article from The Jerusalem Post:

Friday's operation in Khan Yunis, as well as the activity in the center of the Gaza Strip and Rafah, may advance the IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) to their primary goal: the elimination of senior Hamas leadership. In fact, one security source estimates that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is running out of places to hide.

If the net is getting tighter is could also be because there are fewer people to hunt down:

Sinwar is almost alone at the top of Hamas. His close friends in the senior military ranks of the organization, as well as the senior officials, have been eliminated or have disappeared: Mohammad Deif, Rafa'a Salama, Ahmed Ghandour, Raad Saad, and Ayman Nofal.

Sinwar lost a valuable leader not long ago:

According to Arab media, the man closest to Sinwar, the minister in the Hamas government and his right-hand man, Rawhi Mushtaha, was also killed along with Sameh al-Siraj and three military commanders from the al-Qassam Brigades who accompanied them: Abdul Hadi Siam, Sami Odeh, and Muhammad Hadid.

Mushtaha, one of Hamas's senior members, is considered to be very close to the leader and is the figure that Sinwar relies on the most, both in the military and the political management of the organization.

He also lost a powerful and rich ally as well:

The elimination of Rafa'a Salama is also significant for Sinwar's survival. Salama is from one of the most powerful and wealthy families in Khan Yunis, owns many properties, and was the operative factor in providing cover to senior officials, which helped enable the survival of the Hamas leadership.

Sinwar needs people to help him hide and now those people are not alive to do that:

The fact that Sinwar's entire operational hub has disappeared makes it difficult for him, according to the IDF's estimates, to move to hiding places, especially above ground.

"Every day, he has trouble finding places where he can hide. The list of associates and confidants is being reduced," said a security source.

It also helps that more and more of those hiding places are being destroyed as well:

According to the source, Sinwar's movement area, like that of other senior officials in the organization, is getting smaller and smaller.

Recently, the IDF even detected ten attempts by Hamas members to move through the Rafah beaches to the Egyptian side of the border.

First, in small rowing boats and even swimming with fins, binoculars, and a life belt when the route was meters away from the shore. Navy ships managed to thwart all attempts, and all terrorists were eliminated.

It is hoped that Sinwar is also moving with a significant amount of hostages as human shields so that finding him could also see those hostages rescued at the same time. Such a mission would require exact information and detailed marksmanship. However, the information has to be pristine and that could be a major issue since those knowing it may have already been killed.

The Fear Factor

As Israel pledges to use full force against the various terrorists vowing to attack them, those terrorists could be thinking twice about as we are told in a report from CBN.com:

Since last month's killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on the streets of Tehran and Hezbollah second-in-command Fouad Shukur in Beirut last month, the Iranian regime and its terrorist proxy groups have made daily threats to attack Israel, perhaps on numerous fronts and in simultaneous actions.

Yet, one Middle East analyst, Yigal Carmon, the head of MEMRI (Middle East Media Research Institute) tells CBN News Israel's pledge to hit Iran and its proxies with full forces has put fear into the Islamist leaders, especially when the Israeli threats are backed by U.S. military force.

Carmon thinks such fear is already working:

Thank you for having me, Chris. Everyone is anticipating an attack by Iran, specifically by Hezbollah, but it doesn't seem to be coming. They appear to be backing away after making a very self-humiliating move by having the new president ask not to attack Israel. What a joke! It's all a game, and everyone understands why they are backing away.

He says the logic is easy:

The reason is that Israel behaved differently this time. It made it clear that if attacked, it would respond with full force, no matter what, and regardless of the American administration's position. This stance has scared them a lot because Iran is an unstable country. No one likes the regime of the Ayatollahs. They have their paid people, the IRGC, but beyond that, if chaos erupts in Tehran, they are finished. They know that their economy is collapsing, and all the oil and nuclear sites are at risk. It's a high price to pay, so they don't want to mess with Israel. Instead, they want attrition; they want to scare Israel and get payback for not attacking, while still holding negotiations with America. They don’t view themselves as equals to America but instead, try to negotiate what they can get in return for holding back.

Carmon also said that Hezbollah could also be holding back because the of the threats:

Hezbollah understands this too. They know the threats that have been communicated repeatedly by Israel's Chief of Staff, the Minister of Defense, the Prime Minister, and even by me on Arab TV, where I told them what would happen and how they would be pushed back to the Stone Age. Nasrallah cannot risk the destruction of Lebanon, so they are in a very bad position due to Israel's deterrence.

The analyst noted that Israel is willing to attack without the support or help from the US:

Now, Israel has made it clear that it will not care about the American administration's position. Imagine, Chris, if we had coordination with America and if America backed us. The deterrence would be immense for the whole Middle East. Unfortunately, we can't hope for that kind of coordination right now.

He said that US help for Israel isn’t how America wants this to play out. He also mentioned how Israel’s threats are a good example for the US:

As for the behavior of the Biden administration in this whole scenario, they want to avoid war at any cost. I can't delve into American politics as I'm not American, but I understand that they would pay anything to avoid war, even at the expense of Israel. But pay the Iranians for what? For all the terror they've spread against America through their proxies, like the Houthis who blocked the Dead Sea shipping, or the pro-Iran Iraqi militias that hit American bases? They should be deterred in the strongest way. Lack of deterrence only invites more attacks. This situation demonstrates what effective deterrence can achieve; we threatened to go all out, and they backed away.

Carmon then cited previous history to make his point:

Let me remind you of two past incidents. When America killed Soleimani, the arch-terrorist of Iran, they were too afraid to retaliate. They talked a big game, but in reality, they begged the Americans to allow them to strike in a way that would save face without causing any real harm. They deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for that – 16 missiles and not even a tail of a cat was injured. They even informed the Americans in advance. The same happened on February 13, when they organized a huge attack on Israel. They told us in advance and targeted non-military sites to avoid provoking retaliation. This is not how you conduct a real attack; it was all a coordinated face-saving exercise.

He was asked by the CBN reporter if he sees the came thing playing out now:

I think the same thing will happen, but I must qualify it with one reservation: They may try something small along the border or through an Iranian proxy like attacking an embassy somewhere, which could inadvertently cause casualties and lead Israel to respond fiercely. If that happens, it could escalate into a total war. Another reservation is that they might consider this the best time to act, given the upcoming elections and the American administration's reluctance to enter a war. But generally, they are very calculated and don't risk their assets lightly. They are not ready for a total war yet; they want to complete their nuclear ambitions and consolidate power in the region before considering a full-scale attack on Israel.

He concludes that he thinks there’s a good chance that cooler heads prevail:

In summary, I give it a 75% chance that nothing major will happen and a 25% chance that they might act due to the current American situation. But they are not ready, and they know it.

I think he’s speaking from previous experience which isn’t likely to play out this time around. All the talk from all parties points to a knockdown, drag out fight.