GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 306

Why Is Iran Waiting?

Lebanon Can’t Imagine

According to a report from The Times Of Israel an attack on Hezbollah by the IDF will be devastating on that country:

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday warned Lebanon of the steep price it would pay if Hezbollah makes do on threats to retaliate forcefully against Israel for the killing of a senior commander in the terror group.

“As things stand, [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah may drag Lebanon into paying extremely heavy prices. They can’t even imagine what might happen,” Gallant said during a visit to troops of the 646th Reserve Paratroopers Brigade.

Gallant warned that the thinking that this could lead to a war is not out of the realm of possibility:

“This may also deteriorate into a war. It’s not theoretical, it’s real,” he added, according to a statement from his office.

Prime Minister Netanyahu wants Israelis to know that victory is on the way:

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Israelis to remain calm as Jerusalem braced for a potentially separate attack from Iran for the assassination of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

“We are continuing forward to victory. I know that Israeli citizens are on alert, and I ask you one thing — stay calm and composed,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the Tel Hashomer army recruitment base, where he met draftees to the IDF’s Armored Corps and Combat Engineering Corps.

The PM went on to say to the troops that they are prepared:

“We are prepared for both defense and offense, we are striking our enemies and are also determined to defend ourselves,” he told troops, according to a statement from his office.

Netanyahu expressed his pride in the soldiers, both those in the reserves and in the standing army, calling them the “backbone of the nation.”

Talking to the Israeli Air Force (IAF), the IDF Chief of Staff made it clear that they will send a clear message to anyone that they are able to defend themselves anywhere:

Speaking to Israeli Air Force personnel at the Tel Nof airbase, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said Israel is on high alert and will be able to launch a quick response to any attack.

“We will know how to launch a very quick attack anywhere in Lebanon, anywhere in Gaza, anywhere in the Middle East, aboveground and belowground,” Halevi said.

“We will send a very clear message to our enemies, those who attack us, those who in every speech talk about how they seek to destroy the State of Israel. We will strike them, and we will continue to grow stronger,” he added.

Timing Is Everything

There are some who think that Iran isn’t hesitating to attack because of diplomatic pressure, but waiting on a Jewish calendar date with a bad history as we read in an article from The Jerusalem Post:

Western intelligence sources told Sky News Arabia that they had evidence Iran plans to attack Israel on Tisha B’Av in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which begins on August 12 and ends on August 13, the site reported on Friday.

As expected, it looks like Iran will attack at the same time as Hezbollah:

Iran’s attack will reportedly be coordinated with Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terror group embedded in Lebanon.

The significance of the date which is also known as the 9th of Av is this:

On Tisha B’Av, Jews lament the destruction of the first and second Temples. During the annual event, there is fasting, mourning and a practice of self-denial.

As we already know, Iran will strike as seen in a post on X by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khameini:

“Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.”

Israel’s enemies like to attack them on significant Jewish days:

The report indicates that there is an emotional and psychological impact in targeting Israel on the holy day of mourning.

The report claimed that Jewish Israelis may feel particularly vulnerable on this day - adding an additional layer of psychological torment.

They’ve done so in the past. Here are just a few reasons for that:

Enemy states and entities have focused their attacks on Jewish holidays in the past, as was the case on October 7, which fell on Simchat Torah and Shabbat, and the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

There is also reportedly a symbolic reason for attacking this date, reviving historical traumas and replaying the images of destruction.

Finally, Iran allegedly hopes that attacking on this day would bring an element of surprise. While security may be occupied with their own religious rituals or settling disagreements, they may be unprepared for a military attack.

It is also thought that social media may play a part in the reasoning:

Sky News Arabia also claimed that the media coverage on the attack would transmit a message to the Islamic world - that “Israel is vulnerable to destruction as the Jews have historically been.”

Another angle may or may not be true:

While the report claimed this may push for the international community to find political solutions to the conflict, it is unclear how this conclusion was reached.

Iran could also be letting its proxies know that they have their backs:

The report also claimed that attacking on this day may restore morale to terror groups attacking Israel, reinvigorating them for future attacks and showing that Iran will continue to back terror leaders in the region.

They will have to do more than the last attack in April that barely inconvenienced Israel:

Iran attempted an attack on Israel in April, only landing a handful of direct hits with the hundreds of drones and missiles it launched at Israel.

According to IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, 99% of the projectiles fired – 170 explosive UAVs, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles – were shot down by the Israel and its allies, causing only minor damage to an IAF base in southern Israel.

Overall, waiting a week to hit Israel on the 9th of Av does seem to make sense, but could be a tad predictable and would also give the IDF sufficient warning to be prepared for it, but also give them time to attack first. In short, we simply don’t know if this makes sense. But what we can always do is to pray for the peace of Jerusalem and specifically give the IDF and Israel’s leaders the anointing of the Son’s of Issachar to understand the times and make a plan for them.