GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 304

24 Hours

The Attacks Are Close

Even as I record this, the IDF could be responding to attacks from Iran and Hezbollah as we see in a report from the Jerusalem News Syndicate:

Iran and its Lebanese terror proxy Hezbollah could attack Israel as early as Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his counterparts from the G7 countries on Sunday.

Three sources briefed on the conference call confirmed the top American diplomat’s remarks to Axios reporter Barak Ravid.

It looks like an international coalition is willing to help stop drone and missile attacks much like they did in April of this year:

Blinken convened the meeting with the G7 allies—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom—to coordinate ahead of the expected offensive by Iran and its terror proxies against the Jewish state.

He stressed that reducing the impact of the expected Iranian drone and missile strikes offered the best hope of preventing an all-out war, according to the report.

Still, no one knows or if they do, they aren’t telling us, just how these terrorists will attack:

While Washington believes Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate against Israel for the targeted killings last week of senior Hezbollah member Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, it is unclear regarding what form that retaliation will take, said Blinken.

Nor, he added, does Washington know the exact timing of the expected attack. However, he emphasized that it could start as soon as the next 24 to 48 hours, meaning as soon as Monday.

The US is also trying to use diplomacy to restrain both Iran and even Israel:

Washington was attempting to “break the escalatory cycle” by limiting the attacks by Iran and its proxies and also by restraining Israel’s response to them, said Blinken according to Axios.

“Blinken asked the other foreign ministers to apply diplomatic pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and Israel to maintain maximum restraint,” the report continued.

Blinken was careful to note that any involvement was only to help Israel if first attacked:

He also stressed to the G7 allies that the bolstering of U.S. forces in the Middle East region was for defensive purposes only.

Overall, they would prefer that a regional war not break out, which is easy for them. Israel however sees this as an opportunity to rid them of the constant terrorist threats they have had to deal with for decades. The attendees of the G7 gave lip service to the situation, though:

“We express our deep concern over the heightened level of tension in the Middle East which threatens to ignite a broader conflict in the region,” the G7 ministers said in a statement.

“We urge all involved parties to refrain from perpetuating the current destructive cycle of retaliatory violence, to lower tensions and engage constructively towards de-escalation. No country or nation stands to gain from further escalation in the Middle East,” it continues.

US General Dispatched

To back up Blinken’s statements, the US sent a military official to map out a defense strategy:

Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in the Middle East on Saturday for a previously planned trip the focus of which has now shifted to mobilizing a multilateral defensive force to shield Israel.

Kurilla was expected in Israel on Monday. Israeli officials told Axios that Kurilla will meet with the Israel Defense Forces to finalize preparations ahead of the possible Iranian and Hezbollah attacks. He was also scheduled to visit the Gulf states and Jordan.

Back in the United States, the national security team will meet to talk about the Middle East powder keg:

President Joe Biden plans to convene his national security team in the Situation Room on Monday to discuss the developments in the Middle East, according to the White House.

Part of the meeting will also be with the Jordanian leader who helped in the defense of Israel back in April when Iran attacked last:

The president will also speak with Jordan’s King Abdullah, the White House said. Amman played a pivotal role during Iran’s April 13 onslaught on Israel.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited Tehran on Sunday to discuss the security situation. According to the Jordanian Foreign Ministry, Safadi met with acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri and passed along a message from King Abdullah II to the Iranian president.

The foreign minister was careful to say why he was meeting:

“I didn’t come here to convey a message from Israel or to receive a message for Israel. I came here to express concern about regional escalation,” Axios quoted Safadi as saying after his meeting in Tehran.

Jordan’s trip was significant all by itself:

Underscoring the regional tensions, the visit marks the first diplomatic trip to the Islamic Republic by a high-level Jordanian official since Safadi’s predecessor, Nasser Judeh, led a government delegation to Tehran in 2015.

There is no question Iran will strike:

Iranian officials have told Arab diplomats that Tehran is determined to strike Israel even if doing so sparks a regional war, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.

Prime Minister Netanyahu also held meetings to clarify the situation:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened the chiefs of Israel’s security agencies on Sunday evening for a situation assessment at the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv, Channel 12 News reported, noting that the government is still creating a “definitive picture” of the assault it could be facing.

The report said that Israel’s defense establishment was considering the possibility of “preventive actions or attacks … in Lebanon or perhaps in other places where necessary.”

Israel appears to see a longer time of engagement this time:

A source in Jerusalem told NBC News earlier on Sunday that the government is bracing for a combined attack by Iran and Hezbollah lasting “several days,” with missile attacks from the north and east.

I may sound like a broken record but this sounds like the Psalm 83 war (see my video on that).

Hamas Is Still Alive

While everyone is looking at Iran and Hezbollah, it is important to note that Hamas is still alive and kicking as we see in an article about that from The Jerusalem Post:

Almost half of Hamas’s military battalions in northern and central Gaza have rebuilt their fighting capabilities, according to an investigative study by CNN, American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Monday.

The study doesn’t see a soon end to the terrorists organization as Netanyahu suggests and they give some evidence to support that assertion:

Despite nearly ten months of fighting, forensic analyses of Hamas’ al-Qassam brigades, drawing on Israeli and Hamas military statements, footage, and interviews with experts and eyewitnesses, cast doubt on the validity of Netanyahu’s “victory is in sight” speech at Congress.

While Israel has dealt blows to Hamas, killing multiple terrorists and eliminating top commanders, several units have regained fighting capacity in areas previously cleared by the IDF, CNN said.

Hamas’ military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, is composed of 24 battalions disseminated across the Gaza Strip. At the beginning of last month, the IDF had only successfully destroyed three of the 24 battalions, according to the assessments by CTP and ISW.

For a unit to be destroyed, it has to be unable to complete its objectives, CNN continued.

Of the 24, eight remain combat-effective and can fight against IDF troops. CTP and ISW rated units as combat-effective when they were able to defend the ground using sophisticated methods and weapons.

Hamas wasn’t totally cleared from areas as many thought:

The other 13 battalions have had moderate reduction in their combat capabilities and can conduct smaller but less successful guerilla-style attacks.

“The Israelis would say that they cleared a place, but they haven’t fully cleared these areas. They haven’t defeated these fighters at all,” said Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager for CTP, who led the joint research. “[Hamas] are ready to fight and want to fight.”

Why is this information important? This could be where the hostages are being held:

The central Gazan Hamas battalions are the least damaged by the IDF, CNN continued, citing Israeli military sources. The sources claim that it is these battalions that Israel believes are holding the majority of the remaining hostages.

The resurgence is complicated, but there are some reasons:

“If the Hamas battalions were largely destroyed, Israeli forces wouldn’t still be fighting,” said retired US Army Col. Peter Mansoor.

“The fact that they’re still in Gaza, still trying to rout out elements of the Hamas battalions, shows me that Prime Minister Netanyahu is wrong,” he added. “The ability of Hamas to reconstitute its fighting forces is undiminished.”

Palestinians told CNN that Hamas dressed in plain clothes, in burnt buildings, and with hidden weapons so as to blend with the local civilian population.

Everyone Is Fighting For Hamas

Which makes it sound like all citizens will join Hamas if needed:

“Hamas’ presence in northern Gaza is stronger than you can imagine,” said one Palestinian. “They’re among civilians. It helps them rebuild their forces.

Hamas has boasted of recruiting “thousands” of new fighters since the war began.

“They [Israel] have certainly killed a lot of Hamas fighters, but they’re still out there, and they’re going to be recruiting like crazy based on the kinds of things that Israel has done,” said Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence, National Security and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC told CNN.

Hamas has been recruiting new commanders to replace those who have been killed. “Recruitment started three or four months ago, and they got a few thousand. I don’t know exactly how many,” said one retired high-ranking Israeli officer.

Deradicalization is indeed going to be a problem since it is one now:

As a result, the al-Qassam brigades are drawing the IDF into continuous combat.

“It’s a game of whack-a-mole,” said Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. “Israel tells the population to go to the center, to the south, and then a large number ultimately do ... They keep moving these people around ... and guess who moves with the population? Almost all Hamas fighters.”

In some ways Hamas is reinventing itself:

Some Hamas brigades have merged so as to create stronger and more elite battalions and are creating improvised weaponry from explosive material left by the IDF. But without experienced commanders, CNN says, they largely rely on guerilla tactics, such as booby traps and staging ambushes.

“The growing lawlessness, the growing anarchy that feels very deliberately orchestrated, is going to allow Hamas or its reincarnation to reemerge,” said one expert to CNN. “Once these bombs stop falling, people are going to be desperate for the rule of law.”

If the IDF is trying to clear the field of terrorism, a previous strategy may not work:

The Iraqi 2007 “surge” strategy is not possible in Gaza. Its principles involve clearing the territory of insurgents, holding on to it, and building relations with local communities.

The former US official thinks the two-state solution will fix the area:

“The only way this conflict will end is with a Palestinian state,” said retired Col. Mansoor. “But the Palestinians, for their part, need to realize that Israel’s not going anywhere ... right now, you have an Israeli government that refuses to countenance any sort of state for the Palestinians.”

“This conflict will only end with a political solution. It won’t end with a military victory.”

I disagree for exactly the reasons he gives for Hamas reconstituting itself. The people who will lead that state are the same ones who are signing up and fighting for Hamas now. It’s in their hearts and minds after almost 3 decades of radicalization starting as young children. Until you root out their hatred for Israel, no state with them will be safer for Israel. Israel will have to occupy the area until the people prove that hatred is dealt with and that will take time.