GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 289

Israel’s Indispensable Man

Political Shakeup

While I try to keep things only about Israel in this podcast, it is hard to avoid that the Democratic nominee for the President of the United States announced he’s stepping down before their nominating convention next month. But the reason I am reporting on it is because of the timing which is connected to Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s scheduled speech to a joint session in Congress as we see in a report from i24news.tv:

While U.S. President Joe Biden's team and surrogates remain adamant that the octogenarian will run for a second term in November, behind closed doors there is growing resignation to calls calling on him to step down due to declining health, the New York Times reported Friday.

Since this report was posted, Biden did step down but will remain president until his term expires in January of 2025. But even when they didn’t know he would, some felt that if he did he would wait:

However, the report added, it is understood Biden is unwilling to step down until after the upcoming speech to Congress by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, so as to be seen as affording Netanyahu a victory lap over the perceived downfall of a political rival.

By only dropping out as a candidate he is able to continue work with Israel, albeit as a lame duck president. In some ways, that just might make his relationship with Israel even more risky:

Biden, presently holed up at home with Covid-19, has enjoyed a rocky relationship with the Israeli leader during the Gaza war; moreover, Netanyahu's previous speech before a joint meeting of Congress, in 2015, was widely perceived as a slight to former president Barack Obama, in whose administration Biden served as the vice president.

Biden got pressure from former president Barak Obama to drop out, which didn’t exactly set well with him:

Other reports meanwhile alleged Biden was upset with his former boss over reports that Obama believed he should withdraw from the race; Biden's perception is Obama "does nothing to help him out," despite their eight-year partnership.

Biden eventually endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris but it took him a full 30 minutes to do which was strange. Regardless, now we need to find out what Harris believes about Israel because she just may be in charge sooner than later. And that’s something Israel needs to discover sooner than later.

And About That Speech

As Netanyahu prepares for that speech in Congress, some are speculating on not just what he will say, but what he needs to say as we learn from an article from the Jewish News Syndicate:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to address, for the fourth time, a joint session of the U.S. Congress on Wednesday. There is a strong possibility this will be the last such address for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.

The address comes amid one of the most challenging periods in the 76-year existence of the modern State of Israel, and for Netanyahu himself.

Netanyahu has been struggling to maintain his nation’s confidence as he guides Israel through a multifront war launched by Hamas in what is without question one of the worst security failings in Israel’s history. The Oct. 7 attack, in which over 1,200 were brutally murdered, many in their homes, with thousands more injured and over 260 taken hostage.

Since the war began, demonstrations against Israel have popped up in cities across the West, along with pro-Palestinian encampments on university campuses across North America. Antisemitic incidents have soared in the U.S. and Europe, while Jew-hatred has saturated social media.

In America, the PM needs to use the speech to shore up support for Israel, the war and even himself:

While according to most polls, most Americans continue to support Israel, anti-Israel sentiment is clearly on the rise, particularly among the younger demographics. Bipartisan support for Israel continues to wane as progressive elements of the Democratic Party throw their support behind illiberal Palestinians as a liberal cause.

And it’s not just in America that support is waning:

International bodies including the U.N. Security Council, the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, continue to project that Israel is the primary source of evil in the Middle East, and possibly the world over.

Members of the longstanding Democratic establishment—including Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer and former Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Hilary Clinton—have openly called for Netanyahu to be removed by an election. And a continuous stream of “leaks” to the press from within the White House has also berated the prime minister.

Netanyahu usually makes the most of these opportunities, but this time is different given the rise of antisemitism among other things:

This time, Netanyahu’s trip to Washington comes amid significant chaos, not only in Israel and the greater Middle East; but also in the U.S., where it appears increasingly likely that current President, and Democratic candidate, Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 presidential race with former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump, who survived an assassination attempt, soaring in polls.

He will also make the case to any politician who will listen to him that the war against Hamas is just one:

Netanyahu will use his speech to Congress, and his tentative meetings with Biden, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, to reestablish that Israel is fighting a just war, one that it did not start. That the war is not just the latest round of an intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but rather a larger conflict funded and launched by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its terror proxies.

Netanyahu will both insist and demonstrate that Israel has been conducting the war as carefully as possible, even sometimes to Israel’s detriment. Whether Israel’s critics want to believe it or not, the IDF has been setting a new military standard for reducing civilian casualties in an urban fighting environment.

He’s Done Well In The Past

But this time props and one liners may not work as well. Still, he will get an audience and may need a substantial speech with lots of solid information in it:

Of course, creating headlines and photo opportunities is only a means to an end. Media stunts in this case will only travel as far as the messages behind them.

Netanyahu also knows that Israel’s enemies, some within Congress itself, will attempt to steal the spotlight, with protests, walkouts and signage. Netanyahu believes that his version of the story will beat that of his detractors.

The PM needs to get Americans on his side as well:

A major reason that Netanyahu accepted an invitation to address a joint session of the U.S. Congress is to make Israel’s case to the American public. Reading the New York Times and other publications would lead one to believe that Israel is on the receiving end of billions in aid while offering nothing but trouble in return.

Netanyahu will reinforce the contention that Israel is among America’s best and strongest allies. Israel is among the top countries in which the overwhelming majority of its public holds America in high regard, possibly as high or even higher than many of America’s own citizens.

What could sour the conversation between Biden and Netanyahu is the 2015 speech where Netanyahu stood up to then President Barack Obama and rejected the Iran nuclear deal:

While that speech soured Netanyahu’s relationship with Democrats loyal to Obama, it sent a shockwave across the Middle East. Here was an Israeli prime minister standing up to an American president to defend not only Israel’s existential interests, but the interests of the Saudis, the Emiratis and Bahrain.

Many believe that one moment led to great respect from countries in the Middle East that also didn’t want Iran to get nuclear and may have led eventually to the Abraham Accords under the Trump administration. And, if he can, this speech could help him hold on to his role as Prime Minister back home in Israel:

The embattled prime minister certainly aims to show that he is still the most capable Israeli leader. He hopes to gain the opportunity to see the successful conclusion to the current war, and potentially the signing of further normalization agreements to cement his legacy as one of Israel’s greatest prime ministers.

More than his legacy, short term he wants to be seen as the best man for the job right now:

While Netanyahu has steered relatively clear of public press appearances over the past several months as the war has progressed, the speech to Congress is another opportunity to try to convince Israelis, who will be closely monitoring the developments of his trip, that Bibi, for better or worse, remains Israel’s indispensable man.