GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 280

Netanyahu Stands Firm

Israel And Hamas Agree

At least that’s what Joe Biden tells us in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

United States President Joe Biden confirmed on Friday afternoon that, while more work is needed, Israel and the Hamas terror group have agreed on a ceasefire deal framework that would see the release of hostages.

The agreement he’s talking about is mentioned in a post seen on X and is quoted in this report:

"Six weeks ago I laid out a comprehensive framework for how to achieve a ceasefire and bring the hostages home," Biden wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "There is still work to do and these are complex issues, but that framework is now agreed to by both Israel and Hamas. My team is making progress and I'm determined to get this done."

Really, this is old news and it’s even acknowledged by Prime Minister Netanyahu as recently as yesterday. Biden’s own National Security Advisor tell us the truth, though:

On Thursday, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters that there were "miles to go on a ceasefire" but that “signs are more positive today than they have been in recent weeks.”

We hear yet again what this framework actually is:

In a Wednesday op-ed, a senior US official told the Washington Post that a framework has reportedly been agreed upon for a ceasefire-hostage release deal in Gaza.

The opinion piece reported that it would lead to the release of some hostages and that the parties involved are in the negotiating phases of implementing such a deal.

Other senior officials warned that although the framework for the deal exists, a final agreement "is not imminent" and that working on the details is complex and expected to take time. US officials say the agreement would see a resolution in three stages.

A government created in Gaza is involved as well as the final release of all hostages and the end to the fighting:

The official claimed that part of the deal would see an "interim governance" plan that would be utilized, in which neither Israel nor Hamas would control Gaza. Before this new government takes control, 33 hostages would be released.

The final stage of the deal, according to the official, would see the release of male IDF soldiers held captive and a complete IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

This all sounds good but again, this is just a rehash of what we’ve already known:

Israel and Hamas did not immediately confirm whether they had accepted the deal's framework.

Further, Biden did not explain how his statement differed from the one issued last week, which allowed talks to resume on the three-phase agreement.

US officials, including CIA Director William Burn, have been in the region all week in an attempt to close the deal. As of this morning, however, there are still many gaps between the two sides.

It’s Friday. No one is listening except news nerds like you and me. The needle hasn’t moved.

And we’re walking…

And We Keep Blaming Netanyahu

A senior officer in the Israeli government is blaming the PM for the hostage deal breaking down and we see in an article from The Times Of Israel:

A senior Israeli official involved in the negotiations for a hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas says that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is holding up an agreement with new demands.

Speaking to Hebrew media, the official says that the prime minister is now insisting on the establishment of an enforcement mechanism that would prevent armed Hamas operatives from returning to northern Gaza.

“This is the moment of truth for the hostages,” the official tells Channel 12. We can reach an agreement within two weeks and bring the hostages home.”

The official says that the hostages don’t have that long and he could be right:

“The prime minister’s insistence on building a mechanism to prevent the movement of armed operatives will stall the talks for weeks and then there may not be anyone to bring home,” the official says.

Apparently, the PM caught even his negotiators by surprise:

According to the Walla news site, Netanyahu raised the issue in a meeting with the negotiating team in a meeting Thursday night. The team told Netanyahu that they were opposed to the new condition and it was not feasible. Netanyahu told the team he insists on it.

“It is a demand that was not part of the Israeli proposal from May 27. It’s not clear why Netanyahu is raising this demand now. The security services know how to deal with the return of the armed terrorists to northern Gaza,” the official says.

The report suspects that this is a stalling tactic by him:

Channel 12 quotes officials as saying that they believe Netanyahu is trying to delay a deal because he is likely to lose his coalition over the deal, with far-right parties vowing to quit if the agreement goes through.

But could it be something else?

He Senses Weakness

We are told in another article from The Times Of Israel that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is basing his redline demands on something else:

Hamas has softened some of its stances in hostage talks, with intelligence assessments indicating the terror group wants a ceasefire in Gaza due to its weakening military position, the Axios outlet reported Thursday, citing Israeli and American officials.

An Israeli official involved in the negotiations told Axios that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in turn, has toughened Israel’s demands for a deal as a result of this intelligence, explaining that the premier “is trying to use Hamas’s weakness to get as much as he can out of the negotiations.”

However there are some who think the PM may push too hard:

“But there is a risk that he will go too far and the negotiations collapse,” the official said, adding that the premier wants a deal, but is willing to play hardball.

Hamas isn’t in good shape and Netanyahu could be right:

A senior American official and several others from Israel told Axios that US and Israeli intelligence had assessed that pressure from Israel’s ongoing military offensive in Gaza and the international community has pushed Hamas closer to agreeing to a deal.

The officials said that some senior Hamas commanders in Gaza have communicated to the Hamas political leadership based in Doha, Qatar, that the situation in Gaza is urgent and that they want — and need — a ceasefire, Israel and US officials said.

A Washington Post report on Wednesday cited a US official as saying that Hamas is in “rough shape,” running out of ammunition and supplies. That official said the terror group, the de facto regime in Gaza, is facing growing discontent from civilians who are more vocally demanding a ceasefire.

While there are some who think that these tougher stances are intentionally getting in the way of a new deal, even one of Israel’s negotiators agrees with them:

Amid the ramped-up hostage deal negotiations in Qatar and Cairo, Mossad chief David Barnea defended Netanyahu’s “non-negotiable” conditions for a deal, and told a security cabinet meeting that without them, Israel would not win its war against Hamas, according to the Ynet news outlet.

Ynet said that Barnea told the meeting’s attendees that “without the clauses that Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on, we will not be able to renew the war [after the deal], and without it, we will not win and we will not return all of the hostages.

“This is what is needed for the good of the State of Israel,” Barnea added.

Hamas is by all accounts living on fumes and everyone knows it. But their pride will not let them agree to these terms since it will mean that the IDF will be given the green light to finish them off. And their belief that dying as a martyr contributes to them not surrendering. All the pieces are in place for this ending really only one way. I can’t be the only one who sees this and I may just have a very powerful politician from Israel agreeing with me. But I digress, but only slightly.