GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 251

Deradicalization Will Be Hard

So Predictable

As we reported yesterday Hamas wants to alter the deal everyone was pushing them to take. And as I told you yesterday the proposed changes make the flexibility they say they are giving to become etched in stone with demands of a permanent ceasefire almost from day one of the first phase. In short they want to make all the accomplishments the Israel Defense Force (IDF) made in the 8 months of fighting go away and for all the loss of lives both on October 7th and in soldiers and hostages since that time to be in vain. All because they want to be able to say to their fellow terrorists they humbled and beat Israel afterall as they will live to see another day in a reconstructed Gaza. They believe that if they resist the pressure being put on them by the international community they will be revered even more and can show their counterparts that they were the only ones to take on Israel and win. Instead of bringing peace and stability in the region they will just rebuild their organization, construct new terror tunnels with Israel supplying the materials, and control both Gaza and the West Bank. Of course Prime Minister Netanyahu won’t have any of that as he has publicly stated over and over again in spite of reports saying he will. Hamas will never simply exchange hostages for terrorists and then get obliterated. It’s so easy to see, but everyone wants to be the one to bring peace to the region so they are blinded to what both sides are constantly saying. And Hamas took two weeks to only change the deal. Clearly they are stalling and in phase one of the proposal Israel reserves the right to stop negotiating and start fighting if at any point they see that Hamas is only wasting their time. This may seem like an odd way to start this podcast, but I felt it was needed.

Deradicalization Is The Real Problem

In a recent poll of Gazans and residents of the West Bank, a strong majority support what happened on October 7th as we read in a report from i24news.tv:

A recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reveals that more than eight months into the war in Gaza, 73 percent of Palestinians support Hamas' decision to launch the October 7 attacks on Israel.

The support is somewhat lower among Gazans, with 57 percent expressing approval.

We get the actual figures from a post on X:

After more than 8 months of war in Gaza, 73% of Palestinians say they support Hamas’ decision to launch the October 7 attacks on Israel (57% among Gazans), according to the latest poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

Even after Hamas leader Sinwar said that they are acceptable losses if they die, his support increases even though many of them have had their loved ones die so far:

The findings indicate an increase in satisfaction with Hamas and Sinwar compared to a similar poll three months ago. Hamas remains the most supported political party as support for Abbas drops to 12%.

4 in 5 Palestinians say a member of their family has been either killed or injured.

Some of these results are hard to figure out from the outside looking in:

As for the day after the war, less than half of Gazans expects Hamas to win the war and remain in power in the Gaza Strip. 75% refuse the deployment of a joint Arab peacekeeping force in the strip.

However, if you understand that many of these polled feel like they are dead already even from birth and being a martyr is one if not the highest honor they may indeed look at this war as one that they must see through. They literally don’t want peace with Israel since they’ve been taught to hate them all their lives. And what about living side by side with them? This part of the survey pretty much says it all:

65% of the surveyed say they oppose the two-state solution (despite a 30% increase among Gazans since the last poll). 63% support armed resistance.

They don’t favor a two-state solution not because they prefer living in peace with Jews, but because they would rather die than do that. And if push comes to shove they are in favor of a one-state solution with all Jews being displaced or killed. You can remove their weapons, but these deep-seated feelings and visceral hatred of Israel will be extremely hard to root out. And taking out a leader like Sinwar may help eliminate Hamas, but it will only serve to deepen their hatred of Israel because they love him so much. If you want to read the full poll results you can find them here: https://pcpsr.org/en/node/980.

Hezbollah Isn’t Happy

While hostage negotiations are falling apart, concern for things escalating with Hezbollah in the north are looking like a war there is going to happen as we see in a report from CBN.com:

Northern Israel came under its worst Hezbollah attack since the start of the Gaza war Wednesday as Hamas made outlandish counter-proposals to the latest ceasefire deal proposed by the U.S., in effect rejecting it.

This attack was significant:

While Israelis celebrated the biblical holiday of Shavuot, Hezbollah launched more than 200 rockets at communities in northern Israel – a new daily record. It was even bigger than the volleys that hit Israel during the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

The IDF got the attention of leaders in Hezbollah and that attack was most likely connected to this response:

The Israeli Air Force struck a major Hezbollah command center Tuesday in southern Lebanon which killed one of the terror group's most senior leaders, Sami Taleb Abdullah. He had spent many years launching attacks aimed at Israeli citizens.

Senior Hezbollah official Hisham Safieddine said after Talib's killing, "Our definitive and inevitable response to this foolish act will be a dramatic increase in the intensity, strength, quantity, and quality of our operations."

Comments like the following one should support my thinking that push is about to come to shove with Hezbollah:

Safieddine added another threat: "If the Israelis are crying about what happens to them in the north, they should prepare to wail and weep soon."

They aren’t going away anytime soon and the PM knows that:

Hezbollah has hit northern Israel almost every day since its fellow Iranian proxy, Hamas, launched the deadly October 7th attack on Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a security assessment with heads of Israel's military, security, and emergency services late Wednesday over the situation in northern Israel as well as the Hamas response to the latest ceasefire deal.

Along with the displaced residents of the northern area of Israel demanding to return and to a safe area, this front of the war against terrorists must be addressed and addressed sooner than later.