NITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 233

The Path Forward

Shots Fired

Recently Hamas has engaged in mostly guerilla warfare but that seems to be changing after a large attack of rockets from Rafah targeted Israel as we see in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

A massive barrage of rockets targeted Tel Aviv and central Israel for the first time in months. The rockets were fired from Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.

The IDF confirmed on Sunday that eight projectiles were identified crossing the Rafah area into Israeli territory. A number of the projectiles were intercepted by the IDF Aerial Defense Array, the IDF announced.

Hamas claimed credit for it:

Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack, with the al-Qassam Brigade, Hamas's military wing, claiming that they fired the barrage in response to ongoing IDF operations in the Gaza Strip.

As a result of the rocket fire, loud booms were heard across Tel Aviv, Petah Tikva, Herzliya, and Ramat Hasharon.

The location was given:

The rockets were fired from launchers located just a few hundred meters from IDF soldiers in the Gaza Strip, the IDF confirmed Sunday. The launchers were located between two mosques. The IDF struck the launchers shortly after the rockets were fired.

So far, no casualties were seen:

Both MDA and Israel Police said there had not been any reported injuries directly from the rocket fire. Several people were injured while running to shelters.

Shrapnel hit a parked car in Herzliya and fell in several other locations throughout central Israel.

Attacks from the north of Israel also happened:

The barrage towards central Israel follows earlier anti-tank missiles launched towards Margaliot and Menara in northern Israel from Lebanese territory, with one missile falling in an open area, Israeli media reported.

With Hamas engaging Israel using artillery it may signal they are getting low on ammunition. And as we all know, a wounded and cornered animal is very dangerous.

Rafah Offensive Must Continue

After seeing Hamas fire rockets at Israel, war cabinet member Benny Gantz spoke up about the Rafah offensive as we read in an article from i24news.tv:

“The barrage of rockets fired this afternoon from the town of Rafah, south of Gaza, shows why Israel must continue its military operation in this area,” National Unity President Benny Gantz said during a visit to the Gaza border communities.

He noted who is to blame:

In his address, Gantz made it clear that the international community should recognize who is responsible for the ongoing conflict.

"The world must know: Those who still hold our hostages captive, shoot at our cities, and continue to spread terror are responsible for the situation. Hamas terrorists are war criminals, and we intend to make them pay for their crimes, sooner or later," he asserted.

"The rockets fired from Rafah today prove that the IDF must operate in all places where Hamas still operates, and that is why the IDF will continue to operate wherever necessary."

The IDF protection systems took care of the attacks:

The Iron Dome air defense system successfully intercepted multiple rockets launched from Rafah, aimed at central Israel. Sirens blared in several locations including Herzliya, Kfar Shmaryahu, Ramat Hasharon, Tel Aviv, Petah Tikva, and other smaller towns, signaling the imminent threat and ensuing interceptions.

Israel isn’t stopping the fighting:

As Israel's military operations continue, the government remains resolute in its mission to dismantle Hamas's infrastructure and neutralize the threats emanating from Gaza.

Whether is a hostage deal or not, Israel is pushing back on Hamas in Rafah because they must not show weakness and let them live.

The Best Path Forward

Even as the Rafah offensive continues and even hostage talks ramp us, one person believes that occupying Gaza is the best move Israel can take as we read in an opinion article from The Time Of Israel:

As Israel’s war against Hamas enters its seventh month, questions arise about Jerusalem’s strategy for Gaza once hostilities cease, particularly the Palestinian exclave’s post-war governance.

The general preference of Israel’s partners, including the Biden administration and Jerusalem’s Abraham Accords counterparts, leans towards Palestinian self-rule, proposals for which exist on a spectrum. On one end lies the idea of a Palestinian civil administration backed by regional actors such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Qatar, and Jordan. On the other end lies the proposal for fully implementing a two-state solution with an independent State of Palestine co-existing with Israel.

The author thinks that Israel should not go those directions:

Israel, however, must categorically reject any form of Palestinian self-rule that lacks substantial Israeli military presence and oversight in Gaza. Palestinian autonomy in the medium-to-short term after the war will merely recreate the security situation Israel encountered in the lead-up to the Simchat Torah massacre. Once hostilities end, Jerusalem’s policy towards Gaza should be an occupation of the Palestinian exclave with limited collaboration with locals to clear the territory of Hamas and its remnants. To this end, Israel should encourage the construction of Israeli settlements as power projection platforms within the territory.

This isn’t necessarily a popular opinion:

The question of what to do with Gaza once the guns fall silent has been a source of division for Jerusalem’s wartime unity government.

Self-governance proponents, notably Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and war cabinet minister Benny Gantz, have ruled out support for military rule in Gaza, although Gallant, according to secret recordings leaked by Israeli media, appears to be opposed to full Palestinian statehood.

The PM has been pretty clear on what he thinks should happen as posts on X show:

The Maccabees then fought, they did not give in, and won. And the Maccabees of today are you: You are not giving up, you are continuing to victory. There is no compromise. It is total victory. Merely winning is insufficient because we will also free all of our hostages…PM Netanyahu: "I am insisting that there will be no force that educates for terrorism, pays for terrorism and supports terrorism. It will not be. I have said this and I reiterate: Neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan. Not the one and not the other. We will insist on this together."

The opinion piece uses recent history to make the point that Israel can’t allow any government in Gaza until they know that it won’t repeat the mistakes of the past:

In 2005, under Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Israel withdrew over 8,000 settlers from Gaza, handing over control to the Palestinian Authority. A year later, in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, which international observers considered to be free and fair, Hamas won a majority in Gaza, prompting an intense power struggle with Fatah, culminating in the expulsion of the latter from the territory in the 2007 Battle for Gaza. As early as the Israeli withdrawal, Hamas used Gaza for frequent attacks against Israel, including the kidnapping of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier Gilad Shalit and the indiscriminate firing of rockets against Israel.

Israel Wasn’t Occupying Gaza

One of the frequent charges against Israel and in favor of Hamas is that Israel was an occupying force in the Gaza Strip. That simply isn’t true as the author writes:

Gaza was not occupied then. Hamas ruled Gaza like any state would, managing taxes, security, public health, and overseeing the distribution of foreign aid. Unlike the Allenby Crossing between Jordan and the West Bank, Hamas, not Israeli soldiers, controlled the Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt. The terrorist group also managed Palestinian foreign affairs in parallel with the Palestinian Authority via its political office in Doha, Qatar. For the most part, Israel permitted Hamas to govern Gaza unperturbed in as much as it did not attack Israel.

The main point is that last sentence. Israel was willing to give Gazans as much room as they wanted as long as they didn’t attack them. Hamas could have enjoyed as much autonomy as they liked, but didn’t:

Enjoying unprecedented independence, the Palestinians of Gaza could have economically advanced the exclave and enjoyed a blossoming relationship with the Jewish state. Instead, Palestinian militant outfits spearheaded by Hamas used their independence to consolidate forces and mount a series of deadly attacks against the Jewish state, subsidized by international aid flows, which negated Gaza’s war-waging costs and Hamas’s governance expenses.

Using its independence and control over Gaza’s border with Egypt, Hamas developed elaborate smuggling networks that brought assault rifles, shoulder-mounted missile systems, and rocket parts into Gaza. Furthermore, it built a tunnel system throughout Gaza that even ran into southern Israel, by which it engaged Israeli soldiers in combat and hid during bombing raids. From its positions embedded in Gaza’s civilian neighborhoods and infrastructure, the group launched attacks to test Israeli capabilities and tarnish Israel’s international reputation by ensuring that any Israeli response would be impossible to carry out without incurring massive civilian casualties that its media wing and global sympathizers could then harness to manufacture outrage.

The piece ends this way:

The lack of an Israeli physical presence protected Hamas from being stopped in its tracks as it strengthened itself. Throughout the West Bank, Israel deployed an intricate, albeit imperfect, human intelligence network, which helped Israeli forces identify militant intent and thwart large-scale attacks by sending troops to detain suspects before they materialized. With no such military presence in Gaza, the Jewish state largely relied on technological surveillance, which has its advantages but cannot provide insights into target psychological profiles and intentions…To conclude, the mindset Jerusalem’s policymakers must have is that it is better for Israel to be feared by the Palestinian insurgency’s human terrain than loved. Ideally, it is best to be loved and feared, but if the choice is mutually exclusive, the Israeli government must give up any delusions of being loved by the Palestinian population. Operation Swords of Iron offers Israel a choice: return to the optimistic primrose path of giving Palestinians more autonomy, that would inevitably result in more October 7ths, or take the unpopular but strategically wise route of occupying Gaza and settling in the territory. The people of Israel should pressure the government to choose the latter option.