GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 211

One Of These Things Are Not Like The Others

Is A Hostage Deal Really Close?

Rumor has it that another hostage release deal is close, but is it really? We see elements of that actually happening in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

Hamas will announce soon that it agreed to the Egyptian mediation proposal, according to Saturday Arab media reports.

The Egyptian "Al-Rad" channel reported that Hamas waived the condition for a cessation of fighting in the first phase of a hostage deal. According to the report, Hamas waived the condition in the first mediation stage, with the guarantees of hostage mediators.

Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds reported that the announcement would come within days, while Qatari government-aligned newspaper Al-Sharq reported that it would come within hours.

Hamas is reportedly coming to Cairo to supposedly complete the deal:

“In light of recent contacts with the mediator brothers in Egypt and Qatar, the Hamas delegation will head to Cairo [on] Saturday to complete the discussions,” Al-Sharq quoted Hamas as saying.

The terrorist group mentioned their main concerns:

Hamas's delegation arrived in Cairo on Saturday morning, Hamas told the Saudi newspaper Asharq on Saturday. Hamas also said its primary focus would be achieving national consensus and rebuilding the Strip.

Achieving national consensus is just another term for becoming a state, something Israel already said they won’t do, and regardless, won’t allow Hamas to be part of it. Read between the lines all you want, but that’s what they’re saying. Apparently the number of prisoners was also discussed:

It was also reported that in recent hours, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and Hamas have held discussions on the number of prisoners to be released in the deal.

Hamas is believed to want Israel to leave Gaza as part of the deal:

Hamas, according to the Al-Quds report, also received American guarantees for a permanent cessation of the war and the withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip in the third phase of the deal.

The terrorist group thinks they have more leverage as well:

Hamas also reportedly said that there is no need for a permanent ceasefire as a precondition of talks, as they still hold senior IDF officers hostage and will be able to use them as leverage in discussion of a more permanent ceasefire.

The IDF Will Go Into Rafah

Reading further in the same report we see that the Rafah offensive will not be a part of any deal:

The IDF denied that it would forgo an invasion of Rafah due to a hostage deal, telling the Israeli media, "As decided by the politicians, the IDF will enter Rafah and destroy the remaining Hamas battalions there, whether or not there will be a temporary ceasefire for the release of our hostages."

Political officials agreed, saying that a hostage deal was not connected to a Rafah invasion and that the invasion would proceed regardless of the success of the agreement.

However, Hamas says they are at least good with the initial part of the deal on the table:

A senior Hamas official confirmed this to N12 on Saturday morning, saying that the Hamas leadership had approved the implementation of the first phase of the hostage deal.

What is the reasoning for that? The article gives it to us:

According to the report, the shift seems to be caused by guarantees from the US, Qatar, and Egypt that Israel would entirely withdraw from the Gaza Strip by the end of the deal.

Citing reports in Arab media, the Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that a senior Saudi official confirmed that Hamas was satisfied with the American guarantees.

The N12 report noted that the same source said that CIA Director William Burns would return to Cairo on Saturday and meet with the senior Hamas negotiating team.

If there is a hitch in these dealings it is this:

The source went on to say that part of the assurances was that Israel would not enter Rafah at any point of the deal.

The number of hostages and prisoners is not an issue, though. Going back to the major issue, the report notes this:

Amid conflicting reports regarding whether or not an Israeli operation in Rafah could occur in the event of Hamas agreeing to a hostage deal proposal, Y-Net, citing an Al Jazeera interview with senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan, reported that the Islamist organization was confused by the Israeli rhetoric.

"Unfortunately, there was a clear statement from Netanyahu that no matter what might happen, whether there will be a ceasefire or not - he will order the operation in Rafah," Hamdan said. "This means that there will be no ceasefire and that the fighting will continue, which is contrary to what we are discussing. We want to understand what he means. Our understanding is that any ceasefire agreement means that there will be no more attacks in Gaza."

"The results today will be different. We have reached an agreement over many points, and a few point(s) remain," one Egyptian security source told Reuters.

Some on the Hamas side think a deal could happen:

A Palestinian official with knowledge of the mediation efforts sounded cautious optimism.

"Things look better this time but whether an agreement is on hand would depend on whether Israel has offered what it takes for that to happen," the official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.

But the points of contention are very big indeed. Hamas wants to be left alive so no Rafah offensive. Israel still wants Hamas annihilated so a Rafah offensive has to happen. Simple, right?

One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others

With a wink and a nod to the familiar Sesame Street jingle from our childhood, I have to point out that Hamas wants to look like they are willing to make a deal with Israel to release hostages, but seriously, are they? They clearly know that Israel is going to go into Rafah and clean house there just like they did in the rest of Gaza. They know that all their leaders are in Rafah hiding. And they know that they are using the remaining hostages as human shields just in case the IDF finds them. They know that Israel isn’t leaving Gaza until they know it is fully demilitarized and also deradicalized. In what world does that fit in with what they say they agree to seeing occur with the current rhetoric? I’ll answer that for you: they are worlds apart. You can’t say that they agree on most things when you don’t agree on the three most important parts of the deal on the table. Israel will release your prisoners in exchange for the hostages. They will help in the reconstruction of Gaza. They will welcome peaceful Gazans back to their homes. But they will not allow any members of Hamas to be anywhere close to them. And they will not allow for a Palestinian state in any form next to them ever again. So no, they aren’t close to a deal no matter how much you read in news reports. When and only when I see Hamas be willing to surrender and then their leadership leave to another part of the world will I believe there is a concrete deal in the making. The current deal doesn’t have that and Hamas has rejected anything close to it in the past. The offer Hamas has mentioned and the one Israel has offered may have common ground in it, but they’re not like each other. Like their respective flags, one has red and the other has blue. I’ll just let that sit there and let you figure it out.