GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 191

Is WWIII Next?

Iran Attacks

As expected and in spite of numerous international pleas to not strike Israel, Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel as did Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq and Yemen as we see in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

In a historic, first-ever direct attack between Iran and Israel, the Islamic Republic launched around 350 drones and missiles across the region on Saturday night, prompting sirens all across the country, disrupting and possibly altering the power balance in the Middle East.

The drones and missiles were shot down at a 99% rate. Drones and missiles were also launched from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. They included 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 missiles containing over 60 tons of explosives.

While the vast majority of the attacks were stopped before they could do Israel any harm, there were causalities:

Three Jordanians were killed, a seven-year-old girl from a Bedouin village near Arad was seriously wounded, while a few dozen others were treated for anxiety. Minor damage was sustained to infrastructure at the IDF Nevatim base in southern Israel during the attack as well, IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari said.

The article states that attacks from Lebanon this way:

There were two rounds of rockets, around 40 in total, fired on Israel from Lebanon, with Israel responding with counterattacks in close to real-time.

As mentioned earlier, the IDF was able to stop the drones or cruise missiles:

None of the drones or cruise missiles entered Israeli airspace, while Hagari noted that only a small number of ballistic missiles managed to penetrate.

Almost all interceptions have been by dozens of aircraft, the long-range Arrow missile systems, or the medium-range David’s Sling system. The Iron Dome, which defends well against Hamas and Hezbollah’s short-range rockets, is less relevant for drones and fancier long-range missiles.

Iran Targeted IDF Sites

Iran stated that they didn’t intend to harm civilians. We read that further in the Post article:

Despite injuring civilians, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it conducted the attack against military bases in “self-defense.”

In a post on Iran’s X page we read a full statement from Iran defending the attacks:

On 14 April 2024, I.R.Iran's armed forces have carried out a series of military strikes on Israeli's military bases in response to, & in exercise of its inherent right of #self_defense as recognized under Article 51 of the Charter, against Israel's recurring military aggressions, resulting in the martyrdom of the Iranian military advisors present in #Syria at the invitation of the Syrian government, in particular the 1 April armed attack against diplomatic premises of the Islamic Republic of Iran in #Damascus.

I.R.Iran reaffirms its commitment to the purposes &principles of the Charter of the #UnitedNations, int'l law, while reiterating its determination to forcefully defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests against any unlawful use of force and aggressions.

#Iran's resort to defensive measures in exercise of its right of self-defense demonstrates Iran's responsible approach toward regional, int'l peace & security at a time when the occupying apartheid regime's pattern of relentless genocidal campaign against Palestinian people is accompanied with repeated military aggressions against neighboring States, fanning the flames across the region & beyond. Iran would not hesitate to take further necessary defensive measures to protect its legitimate interests against any act of military aggression, unlawful use of force.

Obviously this is a tad slanted, but it lets you know how they believe they were morally right to strike.

A Significant Feat

In a report from The Times Of Israel the extent of repelling the Iranian task is detailed:

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari first confirmed at 11 p.m. that the attack, anticipated for several days, had begun. He later said Iran also fired missiles at Israel, while “numerous” fighter jets were in the sky countering Tehran’s attacks.

Hagari said that in total, Iran launched more than 300 projectiles at Israel, comprising 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles, and that 99% of them had been intercepted by air defenses.

“This is a very significant strategic achievement,” he said in a morning press statement.

“The Iranian threat met the aerial and technological superiority of the IDF, combined with a strong fighting coalition, which together intercepted the vast majority of the threats,” Hagari said.

More attack information is seen next:

All 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles were downed outside of the country’s borders by the Israeli Air Force and its allies, he said. Not one drone or cruise missile managed to enter Israeli airspace.

The IDF said that the long-range Arrow air defense system managed to knock down the “vast majority” of the 120 ballistic missiles, although some penetrated Israel’s defenses and struck the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel.

At Nevatim, “slight damage” was caused to infrastructure, but the airbase was running as usual, Hagari said.

Hagari had some words aimed right at Iran when he added this:

“As you can see now, the base is functioning and continues to perform its tasks. In the picture, you can see the runway at Nevatim,” he said, showing live footage from the airbase during his press statement Sunday morning.

“Iran thought it would be able to paralyze the base and thus damage our air capabilities, but it failed. Air Force planes continue to take off and land from the base, and leave for offense and defense missions, including the Adir (F-35) planes that are now returning from a base defense mission and soon you will see them landing,” he said.

International Defense Given

In the same article from The Jerusalem Post we are told who helped the IDF to defend itself:

The US, UK, France, and Jordan helped shoot down Iranian projectiles, with the US shooting down over 70. Israeli aircraft started shooting down projectiles as of 12 a.m., but significant numbers of threats were shot down between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m.

And going back to The Times Of Israel article we get more details:

Three US officials said the American military shot down Iranian drones headed toward Israel, without disclosing how many were shot down or the precise locations. Security sources told Reuters that US forces operating from undisclosed bases in the region shot down a number of Iranian drones in Sweida and Deraa provinces in southern Syria near the Jordanian border.

Jordanian jets downed dozens of Iranian drones flying across northern and central Jordan heading to Israel, two regional security sources said in a dramatic show of support from Amman, which has heavily criticized Israel’s prosecution of its war against Hamas in Gaza.

The sources said the drones were brought down in the air on the Jordanian side of the Jordan Valley and were heading in the direction of Jerusalem. Others were intercepted close to the Iraqi-Syrian border. They gave no further details.

Britain said Royal Air Force jets in the Middle East “will intercept any airborne attacks within range of our existing missions, as required.”

As I expected, Syria is ready for an attack on Damascus:

Syria also put on high alert its Russian-made Pantsir ground-to-air defense systems around the capital Damascus and major bases in the event of an Israeli strike, Syrian army sources told Reuters, explaining they expected Israel to retaliate against army bases and installations where pro-Iranian militia were based.

Israel Will Respond

Israel sent out multiple signals that they are getting a response ready and will most likely take action within 24 hours as we read more on this from an article in The Jerusalem Post:

Leading Israeli politicians argued on Sunday over what the next step should be after Iran's overnight missile and drone attack against Israel.

Minister-without-portfolio and member of Israel's war cabinet, MK Benny Gantz, insinuated in a video statement that Israel would not respond immediately with an attack against Iran.

"Facing Iran, we will build a regional coalition and may Iran pay the price, in a manner and time that is correct for us," Gantz said. Gantz called the results a "strategic achievement" which Israel must "leverage" for its national security.

"This event is not over – the strategic alliance and alignment of regional cooperation must be strengthened, specifically now," Gantz added.

This statement sounds too soft for some in the Israel government:

Far-right National Security Minister MK Itamar Ben-Gvir called Gantz's comments "hollow western slogans by those who remain deep in the conception. In order to create deterrence in the Middle East, the boss must go nuts," Ben-Gvir wrote on X. In a video statement earlier on Sunday, Ben-Gvir said that "Israel's cannot give a fumbling response," adding that "policies of containment and proportionality passed from the world on October 7."

Another member said this:

In a video statement of his own, on Sunday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that "this is the time for leadership that is capable of returning deterrence that has the courage to restore security to the citizens of Israel, not with slogans, but with action."

"The eyes of the entire Middle East and the entire world are on the State of Israel. If our reaction resonates throughout the Middle East for generations to come - we will win," he added.US US Warns Israel To Not Respond

In a report from CBN.com we are told that the United States will not help Israel if it decides to launch a counter-strike on Iran:

Multiple news outlets reported that Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Israel should view the successful defense against the missile attack as a "win," and that the United States, presumably out of fears that the United Nations would be enmeshed in a wider war, would not take part in an Israeli military response.

I think the report should read that the United States fears being enmeshed in a wider war, but these news sites are under a lot of pressure to get the news updated as fast as they can so we should give them some grace. However, the article gives us a little blowback on Biden’s phone call with Netanyahu:

The founder of NGO Monitor, Gerald Steinberg posted on X, "No, @Joe Biden. The Iranian regime's failure to do major damage with 350 missiles is not a "win" – 9 million Israelis spent the night being terrorized. The regime must pay a major price so that this will not be repeated."

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also criticized the White House on X, writing, in part, “Deterrence by denial is the Biden administration’s operating philosophy. Deterrence by punishment is anathema." He added, “So keep shooting at America and its allies until something gets through.”

All indications are that Israel is going to respond regardless of those telling them to show constraint which is easy when you live in a country roughly 448 times bigger than them and around 6700 miles away from the attacks.

Is This The Start Of WWIII?

Can I be absolutely certain it isn’t going to be the start of the next World War? No. But as a student of Bible prophecy I don’t see anyone outside the Middle East not directly near Israel committing to fight against Iran or its proxies. You can hear it in their calls for Israel to not return fire at Iran. I don’t see a worldwide conflict unless the rhetoric I’m seeing changes. Countries are willing to intercept attacks, but not fight back. Jordan who is not happy about Israel’s war against Hamas helped intercept missiles shot from Syria. No one has the stomach for it and If Israel does strike back at Iran as it promised before Iran attacked it will up to Israel to finish this war. I believe they can and will as long as Russia and Turkey stay out it. Russia doesn’t want to extend itself more by joining Iran and her proxies and Turkey could make thing harder, but I think they would prefer Iran is taken down a notch of two so they can be the dominant Muslim player there. Overall I see the Psalm 83 war happening next and add in Damascus being destroyed and Iran’s nuclear capacity attacked. Then I see the War of Gog and Magog as seen in Ezekiel 38 coming next, but not for a little time. If Russian ends the Ukraine war then I could see them forming the Gog and Magog coalition after Israel expands its territories and dwells in peace and safety. Regardless of all this, praying for the peace of Jerusalem is at the top of our prayer lists now. There appears to be calm, but I think it will be the calm before the storm. Pray hard. Pray often, but pray, pray, pray.