GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 167

How Close Is A Hostage Deal?

Moving 1.2 Million People

A consistent cry from those against the IDF operation in Rafah is evacuating the large amount of people living there because of the war. And one military source thinks Israel needs to get that done right now as we see in an article from The Jerusalem Post:

Mossad Director David Barnea left for Doha on Sunday to discuss Hamas's counter-proposal for the hostage deal with the prime Minister of Qatar, Muhammad Al Thani, and Egyptian officials. Brig.-Gen. (res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel, former acting National Security Council chief, referred to the negotiations in a conversation with Arel Segal on 103FM.

"The IDF is about to enter Rafah. Before it attacks Rafah, it needs to move the 1.2 million refugees who are there either [elsewhere in Gaza] or to some floating islands. The Egyptians don't want them to come to the fence with Egypt, the Americans don't want us to attack first, so that there won't be a humanitarian disaster. I think it should have happened a week or two ago," he said. "People got confused when the Prime Minister's Office says 'approved plans,' it does not mean 'gave the army an order to attack.' Today, the army and the political echelon, in my opinion, are saying the same thing, they are waiting, they are currently giving a chance to the last attempt to reach a hostage deal."

Nagel feels Hamas isn’t under any pressure right now:

According to Nagel, "There won't be a deal because Hamas doesn't currently feel enough pressure, especially [Hamas chief Yahya] Sinwar, and that's why it makes ridiculous demands. I still think it's right to send the delegation to Qatar... I'm in favor of a deal that has everything Hamas wants except for a ceasefire. To get 40-50 hostages, I have no problem with a month-long cease-fire and even the release here and there of heavy prisoners. The one thing that we can under no circumstances agree to is a ceasefire."

He maintains that all the fighting arenas are connected:

Nagel continued, stating "What's happening right now de facto is that Hamas is getting a kind of ceasefire, not exactly, but kind of. They're still fighting in the north, in the center, and here and there, we're attacking Rafah. We need to start with this quickly, very quickly. This situation also affects the North (the border with Lebanon)."

He says Hamas as an organization may be defeated, but terrorism overall could take some time:

According to Nagel, "There are 24 battalions of Hamas, we destroyed 18 to 20 of them. We need to destroy all 24, after that we need to continue working underground and above the ground, for years, just like it was in Operation Defensive Shield in Jenin. Until today, [22] years later, there are still nests of terrorism in Jenin, so whoever thinks that there will be no terrorists after we destroy Hamas in Rafah is wrong. The fight against terrorism will take place for [years to come], but if the IDF controls security in Gaza, it will be able to enter and exit as it does in Judea and Samaria, which will be much better."

Evacuating refugees must happen quickly, he says:

Finally, Nagel added, "Ramadan must not be a parameter for when they attack in Rafah and when they don't. The only parameters are to evacuate the refugees so that we are not accused of killing supposedly innocent civilians, some of them are not, and so that we receive the support or non-resistance of the Egyptians, the Americans, and the world."

Is A Hostage Deal Possible?

That is the question of the day to many both in and outside of the negotiations. We hear from the US Secretary of State on how he sees things going in a report from i24news.tv:

The United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday gave an interview to Saudi channel AlHadath as he paid another visit to the Middle East amid the high-stake negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

" It’s getting closer. I think the gaps are narrowing, and I think an agreement is very much possible," he estimated the chances of securing the deal soon.

He pointed to the one party holding things up:

Blinken said that Hamas was the actor hindering the negotiations, but expressed hope that the group could still make the ceasefire badly needed for Gazans possible: "We worked very hard with Qatar, with Egypt, and with Israel to put a strong proposal on the table. We did that; Hamas wouldn’t accept it. They came back with other requests, other demands. But I believe it’s very much doable, and it’s very much necessary."

"If Hamas cares at all about the people it purports to represent, then it would reach an agreement, because that would have the immediate effect of a ceasefire, alleviating the tremendous suffering of people, bringing more humanitarian assistance in, and then giving us the possibility of having something more lasting," added the U.S. State Secretary.

Truly caring for its people is a good point to make because if they really did, this whole war wouldn’t have happened according to Blinken:

To the AlHadath journalist's question of Hamas' pragmatism, Blinken responded that "if Hamas was genuinely being pragmatic, they never would have done what they did on October 7. And then having done that, this could have ended immediately if they had stopped hiding behind civilians, put down their weapons, released the hostages. Then we wouldn’t have seen this terrible suffering [of the Gaza population]. But even with that, it’s been incumbent upon Israel to put the protection of civilians and getting assistance to them as a top priority."

He added that "the Israeli team is present" and "a very strong proposal was put on the table, and we have to see if Hamas can say yes to the proposal. If it does, that’s the most immediate way to alleviate the misery of people in Gaza, which is very much what we want."

The US is not wanting an offensive in Rafah he said:

Speaking of the U.S. stance on the Rafah operation, Blinken reiterated that the White House cannot support such a step and confirmed the reports saying an Israeli team will visit Washington in a joint effort to find other ways to reach the goals of the Israeli military.

"What we don’t want to see is a major ground operation because we don’t see how that can be done without doing terrible harm to civilians. But at the same time, it is imperative to do something about Hamas, because Hamas has brought nothing but death and destruction to Palestinians."

"The quickest path – the quickest path to ending that is getting this immediate ceasefire with the release of hostages. Then a lot more becomes possible."

I still want to know why so many world leaders don’t want Israel to take on Hamas in Rafah. It is plain puzzling why what could essentially end the war is so stubbornly opposed.

Nothing Bad Happened

In a new poll, Palestinians in Gaza, Judea, and Samaria said that no atrocities happened on October 7th and fully supported the attack. We read more on that in an article from the Jerusalem News Syndicate:

Ninety-three percent of Palestinians believe that Hamas did not commit atrocities during its mass invasion of southern Israel on Oct. 7, and 72% support the attack, according to recent polling conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR).

The survey of 1,580 Palestinians in Gaza, Judea and Samaria was conducted between March 5 and 10 via in-person interviews. The margin of error was 3%.

This in spite of actually seeing videos of the attacks:

Notably, among Palestinians who watched videos of the atrocities filmed by the perpetrators themselves, 81% still did not believe atrocities were committed.

Only one in five Palestinians have seen such videos, according to the survey.

The support for Hamas is detailed this way:

Palestinian support for the Oct. 7 attack is virtually unchanged since the last poll was conducted three months ago, with 71% calling Hamas’s decision to launch it “correct.” The results do, however, show a difference between respondents in the Gaza Strip and in Judea and Samaria. In Gaza, support for the attack rose by 14 points since December, to 71%. In Judea and Samaria, support for the invasion dropped 11 points, also to 71%.

Surprisingly, Gazans’ support for Hamas continuing to rule the Gaza Strip has increased by 14 points to more than 50% since December, with nearly 60% believing that the terrorist group will remain in control of the territory.

The pollsters say that these results make no sense:

“Given the magnitude of the suffering in the Gaza Strip, this seems to be the most counterintuitive finding of the entire poll,” according to the Ramallah-based institute.

“Nonetheless, it is consistent with the increase in the percentage of Gazans who think Hamas will win the current war. This is particularly interesting because the opposite happened in the West Bank, with the preference for Hamas staying in control dropping significantly while West Bankers’ expectations that Hamas will win dropped by 14 points.”

Support for a two-state solution has increased:

The poll also showed a significant increase in support for the so-called “two-state solution” in Gaza with a 27% rise, while support remained stable in Judea and Samaria.

Some still want the war to end peacefully:

There was also a 17-point decrease in support for “armed struggle” among respondents in both territories, as well as 5-point rises in support for negotiations and non-violence.

In my view, ignoring what actually happened on October 7th is tantamount to a conditioned response after so many decades of propaganda aimed at hating Israel and Jews. And this poll is another reason that deradicalizing Gaza and even the West Bank will be harder than demilitarizing the areas. Much harder. Factor this new information into your prayers for the peace of Jerusalem.