GNITN – Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 46
All About The Hostages – Part 2

Hostages Could Be Freed

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After we reported yesterday at this time, any hostage deal appeared to be a non-starter, but today it appears that a deal could happen as we see in this report from The Times Of Israel (see https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-set-to-convene-cabinets-to-vote-on-gaza-hostage-deal/) :

The Prime Minister’s Office announced on Tuesday afternoon that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be convening a series of cabinet meetings in the evening, apparently to approve a deal that would see the release of dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

The announcement from the PMO stated that Netanyahu would be gathering ministers “in light of developments on the issue of the release of our hostages,” without elaborating.

Netanyahu was slated to convene the war cabinet at 6 p.m. local time, the broader security cabinet at 7 p.m. and the full cabinet at 8 p.m. The announcement was the first confirmation from Israel that a serious deal to release some of the approximately 240 hostages held by terror groups in Gaza since October 7 is close.

In an article from 124news.tv (see https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/1700577430-netanyahu-says-progress-made-in-hamas-hostage-deal-negotiations) we get more details for what may be on the table:

The main points known about the hostage deal so far:

- Minimum of 53 hostages will be released, mostly children and their mothers, with potential of the total number released reaching 8p hostages

- 10 hostages will be released every day

- 4-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

- 150 Palestinian prisoners will be released, mostly women and minors

More Details

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Going back to the Times Of Israel article we read this:

An Israeli government source told reporters Tuesday evening that the deal is expected to see the release of 50 living Israeli citizens, mostly women and children, in groups of 12-13 people per day. In exchange Israel will release Palestinian women and minors from prison and return them to where they used to live, mostly the West Bank and East Jerusalem, pause fighting for four days and allow the entry of more fuel to the Strip.

The source said that all Israeli security agencies — the IDF, Shin Bet and Mossad — are in favor of the emerging deal. The official said that Netanyahu has insisted on certain elements being part of the deal, including the potential for the ongoing release of hostages even after the 4-5 day pause, a commitment by Hamas to identify and locate hostages being held by other terror groups in the Strip, and the refusal to release Palestinian prisoners who have been convicted of murder.

There are so many varying reports from agencies representing both sides that getting precise information may not be possible until the actual time of the releases.

Conditional Ceasefire

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A ceasefire is hotly contested within the Israeli government, but Hamas is wanting it to be part of any deal. It could be 4 days or it could be 5 days. It could include some military activities in some places and not others. While I find it hard to believe that Israel will stop fighting, the pressure to get hostages released has been intense and the terrorists aren’t budging on a ceasefire. According to a report from i24news.tv (see https://www.timesofisrael.com/ben-gvir-warns-against-disaster-of-a-hostage-deal-slams-idiocy-of-war-cabinet/?utm_source=article_hpsidebar&utm_medium=desktop_site&utm_campaign=liveblog_entry) opposition is strong:

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir slams a potential deal that would see hostages held by Hamas in Gaza exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons and warned that any such deal would end in “disaster.”

Speaking to Channel 14 on Tuesday, the minister, who heads the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, addressed the reports that Israel is close to finalizing a deal that would see some 50 people — most likely mothers and children — freed from Gaza, where they have been held for over six weeks along with some 190 others.

“I am very upset because they’re now talking about some kind of deal,” Ben Gvir, who is a security cabinet minister, told the news outlet. “I am disturbed because we are once again being divided and once again we are not being told the truth. And once again, we are being pushed to the side. The rumors are that the State of Israel is once again going to make a very, very big mistake in the style of the Shalit deal.”

A Previous Hostage Deal Could Have Caused The Current War

Ben Gvir is talking about a previous hostage release deal that actually played a part in the current wars we continue to read from the Times Of Israel article previously cited above :

“You remember that we released Gilad Shalit, we let out [Yahya] Sinwar and his friends and brought this trouble upon ourselves,” Ben Gvir added.

The deal referred to by Ben Gvir took place in 2011 and saw Israel release 1,027 security prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit, who was captured by Hamas in 2006 while serving in the Israel Defense Forces.

Among those released in the deal were prominent Hamas members Husam Badran, who now serves as a spokesperson for the terror group in Qatar, and Yahya Sinwar who leads Hamas inside the Gaza Strip. Sinwar is thought to be a key mastermind of the October 7 onslaught in southern Israel in which at least 1,200 people were killed and some 240 were kidnapped.

I would have to say he has a good point here.

Even More Details

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And we go back to the previous i24news.tv article for a little more on this:

According to the agreement, the list of hostages to be released does not include foreigners who do not have Israeli citizenship. For its part, the Israeli army will also refrain from flying over the Gaza Strip for six hours each day, during the first days of the truce, in order to allow Hamas to locate the other hostages who are being held by Hamas terrorists. Islamic Jihad.

According to some estimates, Hamas is holding nearly 210 of the 240 hostages, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad is holding the remaining 30.

In exchange for the release of the hostages, Israel will release approximately 150 Palestinian prisoners, women and children, held in its prisons, and who do not have Jewish blood on their hands. The agreement would also include the entry into the Gaza Strip, including in the north, of 100 to 300 trucks of food and medical aid as well as fuel.

Going back to Ben Gvir, he points out that the war cabinet bargained down from 80 hostages, to 70 and then to 50. He said that no food would enter or fuel and now both are happening. He also says that we are not even allowing the Red Cross to examine the hostages being released. As I said earlier, he has valid objections. We pray he’s wrong and things will work out. A little more on that later, though.

The War Will Not End

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Even with the news of hostage releases and a limited ceasefire, Prime Minister Netanyahu insists the military operation to eliminate Hamas will continue as we read in this article from The Times Of Israel (see https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-war-will-continue-until-all-goals-achieved-to-destroy-hamas-return-all-hostages/) :

Netanyahu says the war against Hamas in Gaza will continue until all of Israel’s goals are achieved, namely to eliminate the terror group that rules the Palestinian enclave, secure the release of all the hostages, and ensure that there’s no more threat from Gaza to Israel’s security.

The premier spoke ahead of a cabinet meeting tonight to discuss a deal that will see at least 50 hostages — children, mothers, and women — in exchange for a ceasefire of 4-5 days and the release of 150-300 Palestinian prisoners.

“We are at war, and the war will continue until all our goals are achieved,” he says.

Netanyahu’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant adds this:

Defense Minister Gallant says ministers will have to weigh “important decisions” in the “next few hours and days.”

Gallant says Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza is a key factor in “dialing up the pressure” on Hamas to negotiate and release some of the 240 hostages taken from Israel on October 7.

“Without the pressure and the continued pressure [on Hamas], there will be no chance” to secure the release of the next groups of hostages, he says, vowing that once the 4-5 day ceasefire is over, Israel’s operations in Gaza will resume “in full force.”

What Will Hamas Be Doing During The Ceasefire?

To me and the more conservative part of the Israeli government any stopping of IDF actions will allow Hamas to regroup and reconstitute itself. And sending anyone in Israel’s jails back to the West Bank just adds to the resistance there. Could Israel and the IDF be playing a game of cat and mouse here? I mean, are they releasing these criminals back into a place they will eventually control completely and keep tabs on them only to put them back into prison? And even if, to get the rest of the hostages released they release more dangerous prisoners back into Hamas hands aren’t they only going to eliminate them later when the terrorists are dealt with after the ceasefires? One other thing to consider is that regardless of how things happen during any pause in fighting is how much intel the IDF is gathering from the some 300 Hamas terrorists they captured in the last few days. Once fighting continues, the attacks will be targeted and fierce. Remember that the IDF is also retooling at this time and developing strategies to refocus their efforts. In the long run, Israel may be playing the terrorists like a fiddle now. We may need to withhold our collective judgments of this political theater and see how it plays out.