He’s Made Up His Mind

According to multiple news sources, US President Donald Trump will intervene on behalf of the Iranian protesters. This is in light of him saying that the planned public executions of protesters and the killing of others won’t happen. We learn from a report from The Jerusalem Post that the strikes could happen within 24 hours:

US military intervention in Iran could come in the next 24 hours, two European officials said on Wednesday evening, Reuters reported. An unnamed Israeli official also said it appeared US President Donald Trump had decided to intervene, though the scope and timing remained unclear.

And that’s the key here. In my mind he has to intervene after all the public comments he’s made, among them encouraging the protesters to continue even though they are being killed by the thousands. Help has to be on the way, but how will it come? No one seems to know. Here is what some think he will do from a report in Israel Hayom:

Military analysts and former government officials indicated potential targets would encompass Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards facilities, command and control operations, plus weapons and supply depots utilized by the government and its proxy forces, according to Financial Times.

Operations could expand to include strikes against senior Iranian officials, these sources noted, Financial Times reported. During Trump's initial presidency, the US eliminated commander Qassem Soleimani, and the president has previously indicated he could also strike Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Yet whether any such action would accomplish what Washington or the Iranian protest movement seeks remains uncertain – and could produce opposite results.

Assassinating Khamenei is what I think he will do, or at least decimating his other leaders, but there are some who think Trump should wait altogether including Israel.

Delay The Strikes

We’re told in an article from World Israel News that Israel and other Arab states now won’t work:

Israel has joined a number of moderate Arab states in quietly advising the Trump administration to delay plans for a possible air campaign against Iran, multiple sources claimed in a report published by NBC News on Tuesday night.

A source familiar with deliberations in the Israeli government, a US official, a former US official, and two Arab officials told NBC News that a number of Arab and Israeli officials have reached out to the Trump administration recently, urging the White House to hold off on attacking Iran, at least for the time being.

They feel that a premature attack would not accomplish the goal of toppling the Iranian regime:

The officials reportedly cautioned that striking too soon could diminish the net effectiveness of an air campaign in degrading the Iranian regime’s ability to remain in power. They warned that a premature attack could not only fail to topple the government in Tehran, but potentially even backfire.

Trump is thought to be seeking political and military input:

The talks are said to have involved not only American political leaders but also US military officials.

In the region Arabs are not supportive of any intervention since it could actually strengthen support from the current leadership in Iran:

One Arab official said that US allies in the region are not keen on American strikes at this time.

There is, the official said, “a lack of enthusiasm from the neighborhood.”

Another Arab official cited in the report warned that “any attack or escalation by Israel or the US will unite Iranians,” strengthening rather than weakening the regime.

And Israel wants Trump to not use military strikes now if the goal is overthrow the Ayatollahs:

Israeli officials who spoke with the Trump administration expressed concerns that an American attack at this point in time might not “finish the job the protesters have started,” the report said.

Israel offered alternative ways to punish Iran:

Instead, Israel has recommended other ways of intervening on behalf of the protest movement, including attempts to circumvent the ongoing internet blackout, tougher economic sanctions, and cyberattacks.

But if military action is what the US President wants, they offered this advice:

If President Donald Trump does decide on the use of force, the officials suggested the campaign begin with a narrow, carefully targeted series of strikes on specific Iranian leaders.

I was talking with someone today and he brought up what I think Trump will do. The first thing I said was that he has to respond in some way. Then I said that Iran won’t respond to anything other than a show of strength. If the goal is to allow the protests to end the rule of the Ayatollahs, then targeting the Iranian leaders is the way to go. I think Trump already gave them the choice of leaving or dying via an Omani official. In my opinion, the targeting of the leaders is the only real option here. The problem is Iran is also planning their response and it could go into effect even if the leaders are taken out as the military is blindly loyal to being in charge of Iran. That is the danger here, too. If a military response happens then it will be on US and Israeli targets in the region. What could happen after that? Think the Psalm 83 war. And that’s a discussion for another day.