They Will Do It

According to the US Special Envoy in the second phase of the Trump ceasefire Hamas will actually lay down their weapons as we see in an article from Israel Hayom:

US President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, revealed overnight dramatic diplomatic details about tough messages delivered to Iran, the future of Gaza and dealings with Hamas. The remarks were made in an interview at the Israeli-American Council (IAC) conference in Hollywood, Florida, as well as in a subsequent late-night briefing with reporters between Thursday and Friday.

Witkoff said that Hamas will truly disarm:

Speaking with journalists, Witkoff addressed Israel Hayom questions regarding Gaza's future. Asked whether Gaza's reconstruction was contingent on Hamas' disarmament, he replied: "I think they will disarm. The president was not afraid to allow Jared and me to meet Hamas. We met them, and that was the key to the deal."

This was based on direct negotiations with the Hamas, something that usually doesn’t happen:

According to Witkoff, a meeting held in Sharm el-Sheikh with Hamas marked a turning point. "That meeting was, in my view, the key to the deal because it showed that we adopted direct negotiations. It was the breakthrough in the 20-point peace plan, and we may need to meet them again. We are not threatened by meeting them. Communication is the most important thing."

Witkoff thinks he can persuade them to do it:

Asked by Israel Hayom about leverage over Hamas, Witkoff argued that the group could be persuaded that disarmament was in its own interest. "I think we can show Hamas that disarmament is the right thing for long-term peace and for the future. And the Gaza reconstruction plan, under President Trump's oversight, is an unbelievable plan. Gaza is meant to become an amazing place."

Time will tell if that will actually occur. I for one see Hamas stalling and then adding restrictions on the disarming making it easy for them to get them back or give them to others who will return them to terrorists like themselves. The questions them turned to opening the Rafah crossing:

In response to further questions, Witkoff also addressed the Rafah crossing. "We need to open it, we promised, and I think we have to open it," he said, while acknowledging that the crossing also served as a pressure point. "Part of it is trust-building, but moving into phase two is a really big deal. Big for Palestinians and Gazans, and big for Israelis. We have to live in peace."

He then broached the remaining hostage remains that was supposed to end phase one:

Regarding the release of the last remaining deceased hostage held in Gaza, Ran Gvili, Witkoff said: "The intelligence was a bit murky, but we are going to bring him home." Asked about an international stabilization force expected to be established in Gaza (ISF), he replied briefly: "We'll sort it out."

Witkoff then assured all who care that the peace council will replace Hamas:

In his public interview at the IAC conference, Witkoff referred to the "peace council" announced in Gaza. "This is a big deal," he said. "Jared and I held a FaceTime call today with 14 members of the technocratic committee. The United States managed to establish a new government that will replace Hamas forever. That happened today."

The Future

The interview then moved to what happened with Iran:

Addressing protests in Iran and their brutal suppression by the regime, Witkoff disclosed that a direct message had been sent to Tehran. "President Trump warned the Iranians. Under his direction, we communicated with them yesterday, and one of our concerns was the killings, the mass hangings. It stopped. Only Trump has the unassailable strength that bends people."

Witkoff mentioned that there were other issues that played a part in the decision to not attack:

He stressed, however, that he hoped for a diplomatic solution. "There are four issues: nuclear enrichment, missiles, the materials they have and their proxies in the Middle East. Iran is in dire economic shape. There is no water for 16 hours a day, no electricity for 12 hours a day, inflation above 50%. If they want to return to the family of nations, it can be solved diplomatically. The alternative is bad."

He said what needed to be said about the protesters:

To protesters in Iran, he sent a direct message: "These are extraordinarily brave people. We stand with you."

Witkoff rightfully mentioned getting the last living hostages back and it profoundly moved President Trump:

Witkoff painted a deeply personal picture of President Trump's involvement in the Gaza hostage deal. "This was a profoundly personal matter for President Trump. When we brought home the last 20 hostages and the families came to the White House, the president pulled me aside. I saw the tears. He doesn't like people seeing tears, and he told me: This is the greatest day I've ever had in the White House."

The Special envoy was also moved by getting them back and said it was intimately personal:

He linked this as well to a personal tragedy in his own life. "I am a member of this terrible club of people who have lost a child. My late son asked me to meet these wonderful families. For me, this was the greatest blessing of my life. His death suddenly gained meaning."

He then said that this whole process is a turning point in his life:

Witkoff said his mission had changed his life. "The president tells me all the time: You're not going back to building skyscrapers after this, right? And the answer is no. What I've done over the past 11 months is the most worthy thing I've ever done."

The interview ended with Witkoff stating that the US/Israel bond is strong:

On relations with Israel, he said: "I get along great with Bibi. If not for the pressure he applied on Hamas, none of this would have happened." He concluded: "Israel is our greatest partner. Israelis say thank God for the US, and we say thank God for Israel."

As I noted yesterday, I still think Trump will make Iran’s leaders pay for killing so many protesters. Perhaps he needed the protesters to get out of harm's way and convincing those leaders to call off their troops was a way to set the stage for that punishment. Regardless, this whole Iran situation isn’t over. And I think Israel will get involved as well.